Full Breakdown
Garrett Nussmeier Slides to Third Round in 2026 Draft
4/25/2026, 8:23:01 AM
Season Decline and Draft Stock Collapse
Garrett Nussmeier entered 2025 after a 2024 season of 4,052 yards, 29 touchdowns and a 64.2 % completion rate. Knee aggravation and persistent oblique pain limited him to 1,927 yards, 12 touchdowns and five interceptions in nine starts. LSU’s offense fell from a 4-0 start to an 8-4 finish, and his projected first-round status fell to a mid-late second- or third-round pick.
Background: LSU’s Turbulent Campaign
The Tigers, ranked No. 9 in the preseason AP poll, lost recruit Bryce Underwood to Michigan and missed the playoffs under third-year coach Brian Kelly. Injuries to Nussmeier’s knee and torso, plus inconsistent receiver chemistry, left the offense averaging 19.8 points per half and struggling in the red zone. Kelly called the quarterback’s injury “minor,” yet the team’s performance declined.
Data & Statistics
2024: 13 games, 4,052 yards, 29 TD, 12 INT, 64.2 % completions, QBR 79.6. 2025: 9 games, 1,927 yards, 12 TD, 5 INT, 67.4 % completions, QBR 72.0. Career (2021-2025): 40 games, 7,699 yards, 52 TD, 24 INT, 64.0 % completions. CBS Sports ranked him fourth-best QB behind Fernando Mendoza, Ty Simpson and Cole Payton. Sporting News projects a third-round pick (No. 76-93). FanDuel odds: Steelers and Cardinals +430, Saints +750.
Official Statements & Responses
Kelly described Nussmeier’s oblique issue as a minor setback, saying the quarterback remained “available.” The NFL Combine’s medical review found a cyst pressing on a spinal nerve but classified it non-serious; Nussmeier was asymptomatic during the pre-draft process. Steelers, Buccaneers and Rams analysts view him as a depth-quarterback with developmental upside.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts noted a QBR drop and a failure to exceed 300 yards in any 2025 game, questioning consistency and arm strength. Twelve interceptions in 2024 were blamed on “over-confidence,” and the offense’s lack of explosive plays heightened doubts about his NFL readiness.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The NFL’s view that the cyst is non-serious conflicts with Nussmeier’s description of “stabbing pain.” Draft projections range from the Steelers to the Buccaneers, Rams, Cardinals and Saints. No detailed medical report beyond the cyst’s presence has been released, leaving long-term impact uncertain.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Just routine routes on air.” — Garrett Nussmeier
- “Just felt the stabbing pain in my abdomen.” — Garrett Nussmeier
- “It was just a freak deal," Nussmeier said.” — Garrett Nussmeier
- “Former LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier underwent tests at the NFL combine that revealed a cyst on his spine — the root cause of the persistent oblique pain that derailed his 2025 season, sources say.” — Tom Pelissero, Twitter
What’s Next
The Steelers and Cardinals lead the betting markets, while the Buccaneers and Saints remain plausible suitors. Whichever team selects Nussmeier will likely place him as a backup with the expectation that he competes for a starting role once fully recovered.
