Story perspectives

Kalshi Raises Trump Impeachment Odds to 28.7%, Democrats React

4/25/2026

Summary

Story summary

Kalshi raised the probability of President Donald Trump’s impeachment to 28.7% on April 25, 2026, while Democratic lawmakers urge the House to act despite Senate Republicans holding 53 seats, making conviction unlikely.
A Verasight and Strength by Numbers poll (April 10-14) found 55% of adults and 50% of independents support impeachment.
House leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Katherine Clark, who call impeachment constitutional, have introduced a 25th Amendment commission bill backed by 78 members.

History

Historical Context

After the House opened an impeachment inquiry on Oct 8 1998, it voted Dec 19 1998 to impeach President Bill Clinton on perjury and obstruction of justice; the Senate trial (Jan 7–Feb 12 1999) ended with a 45-55 vote against conviction, showing a partisan Senate can block removal. That precedent shapes the 2026 effort, where Democrats led by Hakeem Jeffries and Katherine Clark pursue impeachment amid a 53-seat Republican Senate.

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Story summary

Kalshi raised the probability of President Donald Trump’s impeachment to 28.7% on April 25, 2026, while Democratic lawmakers urge the House to act despite Senate Republicans holding 53 seats, making conviction unlikely.
A Verasight and Strength by Numbers poll (April 10-14) found 55% of adults and 50% of independents support impeachment.
House leaders Hakeem Jeffries and Katherine Clark, who call impeachment constitutional, have introduced a 25th Amendment commission bill backed by 78 members.

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