Russia's Central Bank Lowers Key Rate to 14.5% Amid Ongoing Economic Uncertainty

On April 24, 2026, Governor Elvira Nabiullina announced that the Central Bank of Russia lowered its benchmark rate by 50 basis points, from 15.0% to 14.5%, the eighth cut since 2024 hikes that peaked at 21%. Move aligns with a projection that rates will stay 14%-14.5% through year-end.

Kyiv Independent

After raising rates to 21% in 2024 to curb wartime inflation, the bank eased policy, delivering eight cuts to support growth while containing pressures. Analysts view latest cut as a compromise between growth and inflation.

Moscow Times

• Inflation fell to 5.7% by April 20 (down from 5.9% in March); forecast 4.5%-5.5% for 2026 and 4% target for 2027.

Moscow Times

• GDP contracted 1.8% in the first two months of 2026; growth outlook 0.5%-1.5%.

Kyiv Independent

• Budget oil price raised 45% to $65 per barrel; key-rate expected 14%-14.5% in 2026, falling to 8%-10% in 2027.

Kyiv Independent

The release blamed Q1 contraction on one-off factors—January VAT increase and heavy snowfalls that halted construction. It emphasized productivity growth as essential, warned that higher structural deficits could demand tighter policy, and said no over-cooling risk is seen. Cuts would require inflation below 4% and rising unemployment. Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin said first-quarter GDP data due in May should improve.

Reuters

Several large firms, including steelmaker Severstal and aluminium producer Rusal, reported quarterly losses they linked to the tight monetary stance. Business leaders argue a key rate near 12% is needed for growth, echoing President Vladimir Putin's call for measures to boost growth, and criticized earlier hikes for curbing investment.

Reuters

One source cites March inflation at 5.9%, another reports 5.7% for April 20. Forecasts also differ: some project 2026 inflation at 4.5%-5.5%, while the 4% target is set for 2027. The variations reflect internal assessment differences.

Moscow Times

First-quarter GDP data due in May will test the growth outlook. The bank signaled readiness to cut rates faster if inflation falls below 4% and unemployment rises. The impact of the Iran-related oil price surge and any fiscal expansion will also shape future policy.

Reuters

• “The consequences caused by rising global costs could outweigh the benefits gained from increased exports and a stronger ruble,” — Elvira Nabiullina, Governor, Central Bank of Russia

Kyiv Independent

• “If the conflict drags on, the adverse effects for the Russian economy will be strengthening. The implications caused by a global rise in costs might turn out to be more serious than the benefits from larger exports and a stronger rouble,” — Elvira Nabiullina, Governor, Central Bank of Russia

Reuters

• “We will also return to 4% inflation, I am sure of it, and I am confident that it will happen much faster," she said.” — Elvira Nabiullina, Governor, Central Bank of Russia

Reuters

• “In case of higher expenditures accompanied by growth in the structural budget deficit, tighter monetary policy will be required than that under the baseline scenario," the central bank said.” — Central Bank of Russia (press release)

Reuters