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Rabobank predicts ECB lifts deposit rate to 3.5% in June.

4/25/2026

44 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

ECB Raises Rates

ECB expected to raise deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in June 2025, Rabobank says.
Rabobank cites January 2025 core inflation of 3.1% and headline inflation of 2.8% amid 4.5% wage growth, 6.4% unemployment and only 0.3% Q4 GDP, while Germany contracted 0.2%.
Markets assign a 53%–68% chance to the hike and Rabobank warns mortgage rates near 4.2% and corporate loans around 4.5% will stay tight through 2025.

Summary

ECB Cut Odds

Prediction markets assign a 0.1% chance of a 50-plus-basis-point European Central Bank cut at the April 30, 2026 meeting.
Traders price the cut at 0% probability, offering a YES share at 0.1¢ for a 1000-fold payoff.
Governing Council member Peter Kazimir warned that the Iran conflict could force a rate hike.
Market sentiment may shift after Eurostat data and ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference later in April.

History

Historical Context

The ECB’s rate cuts deepened during the euro-zone debt crisis (2009-2018), culminating in the 2012 Outright Monetary Transactions programme. Rabobank now projects a deposit-rate increase to 3.5% in June 2025, while markets price a 2026 cut as near zero. Council member Peter Kazimir warns that persistent inflation and Iran-related shocks could compel the ECB to tighten credit again.

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ECB Raises Rates

ECB expected to raise deposit rate by 25 bps to 3.50% in June 2025, Rabobank says.
Rabobank cites January 2025 core inflation of 3.1% and headline inflation of 2.8% amid 4.5% wage growth, 6.4% unemployment and only 0.3% Q4 GDP, while Germany contracted 0.2%.
Markets assign a 53%–68% chance to the hike and Rabobank warns mortgage rates near 4.2% and corporate loans around 4.5% will stay tight through 2025.

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