Story perspectives

25% Chance Super El Niño Threatens Australia’s 2026 Heat

4/25/2026

Summary

Australia Faces Drought

Australia faces higher risk of warmer, drier weather if a “super” El Niño develops in 2026.
NOAA gives a 25 percent chance of a strong El Niño in 2026 and a 62 percent chance for June-August 2026.
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa researchers use SST data to forecast El Niño 15 months and note that Q1 2026 was fourth warmest on record, giving a 19 percent chance the year could beat 2024 as the hottest.

Summary

UN Flags Gap

UN Environment Programme’s 2025 Adaptation Gap Report says adaptation finance fell to $26 billion in 2023, far below the $310-$365 billion needed by 2035.
A “super El Niño” is a Pacific sea-surface temperature anomaly >2 ?, recorded only in 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, and it has lowered soil moisture in East Africa, the Maritime Continent and western Greenland, threatening crops.
The report urges shifting to anticipatory redesign of water systems, cities, agriculture and infrastructure.

Summary

Fishers Name

17th-century Peruvian fishers named the warm Christmas-time seas “El Niño,” meaning “Christ child.”
The warm waters reduced fish surfacing, leading to seasonal harvest shortfalls for coastal fishing communities.
World Meteorological Organization chief Wilfran Moufouma Okia says it does not use “super El Niño” and that the spring predictability barrier limits forecasts until after April.
The WMO’s end-May update will state no evidence that climate change raises El Niño frequency or intensity.

1 of 3

Australia Faces Drought

Australia faces higher risk of warmer, drier weather if a “super” El Niño develops in 2026.
NOAA gives a 25 percent chance of a strong El Niño in 2026 and a 62 percent chance for June-August 2026.
University of Hawai‘i at Manoa researchers use SST data to forecast El Niño 15 months and note that Q1 2026 was fourth warmest on record, giving a 19 percent chance the year could beat 2024 as the hottest.

1 / 3