Story perspectives

S&P 500 Sets Record Amid Iran War, $4 Gas Prices

4/25/2026

Summary

S&P 500 Soars

The U.S. S&P 500 hit a record high despite an Iran-U.S. war and a 60% oil-price surge.
Gasoline rose above $4 per gallon as energy markets tightened.
Analysts forecast double-digit Q1 earnings growth, while March CPI showed 3.3% inflation—above the Federal Reserve (Fed) 2% target—causing bond yields to climb.
Morningstar global markets editor Tom Lauricella said strong earnings expectations drive optimism, though a weak earnings season could still threaten stocks.

Summary

S&P 500 Recovers

The S&P 500 fell more than 5% by the end of March after the war began on Feb. 28.
From its March 30 low, the index climbed over 11% by April 21, surpassing its previous level.
Analysts advise investors to keep a buy-and-hold stance and use dollar-cost averaging to avoid market-timing temptations.
They cite post-World War II, Vietnam and pandemic recoveries, emphasizing that time in the market beats timing.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC announced an oil embargo against the United States and other supporters of Israel, cutting output by about 5 percent. The embargo pushed crude from $3 to $12 a barrel—a 300 % rise—and sent U.S. gasoline prices soaring and the S&P 500 down 17 %. The shock taught investors that markets eventually recover, reinforcing today’s buy-and-hold advice.

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S&P 500 Soars

The U.S. S&P 500 hit a record high despite an Iran-U.S. war and a 60% oil-price surge.
Gasoline rose above $4 per gallon as energy markets tightened.
Analysts forecast double-digit Q1 earnings growth, while March CPI showed 3.3% inflation—above the Federal Reserve (Fed) 2% target—causing bond yields to climb.
Morningstar global markets editor Tom Lauricella said strong earnings expectations drive optimism, though a weak earnings season could still threaten stocks.

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