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El Niño Expected May-July 2026, Possible Strong Event

4/25/2026

Summary

WMO Predicts El Niño

WMO forecasts El Niño to start between May and July 2026 and could be strong.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia said model alignment improved after April, raising confidence.
NOAA assigns a 61% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and a 25% chance of a strong event in November 2026.
WMO expects above-normal temperatures nearly everywhere and increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

Summary

WMO Forecasts Heat

The World Meteorological Organization’s May-June 2026 seasonal update reports a rapid warming trend in the Nino 3.4 region.
The update predicts that above-normal land-surface temperatures will dominate near-globally during the season.
El Niño is developing while human-induced climate change raises global temperatures and intensifies extreme weather.
Weak La Niña-like conditions are shifting to neutral Pacific states, with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole expected in the second half of the southwest monsoon season.

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WMO Predicts El Niño

WMO forecasts El Niño to start between May and July 2026 and could be strong.
Wilfran Moufouma Okia said model alignment improved after April, raising confidence.
NOAA assigns a 61% chance of El Niño in May-July 2026 and a 25% chance of a strong event in November 2026.
WMO expects above-normal temperatures nearly everywhere and increased rainfall in southern South America, the southern United States, the Horn of Africa and central Asia.

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