Full Breakdown
AfD Reaches Record 28% in Latest INSA Poll, Tightening Germany’s Coalition Calculus
4/26/2026, 1:27:20 AM
Core Poll Findings
A weekly INSA voting-intention poll released on 25 April 2026 shows Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) at 28 percent, its highest level ever recorded by the institute. The party’s share rose by one point from the previous week, extending its lead over the centre-right Union (CDU/CSU) led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz, which remained at 24 percent. The Greens slipped to 12 percent, the Social Democratic Party (SPD) held steady at 14 percent, and the Left Party stayed at 11 percent. An additional 11 percent of respondents indicated support for parties that would not meet the 5 percent parliamentary threshold.
Survey Methodology
INSA surveyed 1,203 adults between 20 April and 24 April 2026. Respondents were asked how they would vote if a federal election were held on the upcoming Sunday (the poll text refers to “Sunday,” while a parallel report specifies 26 April). The sample size and timing are consistent across both reports.
Coalition Scenarios Under Current Poll Landscape
Given the distribution of party support, the poll calculates that a governing majority—requiring at least 45 percent of the vote share among parties clearing the threshold—would be achievable only through three-party alliances. A coalition of the Union, SPD and Greens would command roughly 50 percent of the vote, while a Union-SPD-Left bloc would total about 49 percent. The AfD’s 28 percent, even if it cleared the threshold, would not be part of any viable coalition under the current stance of other parties.
Opposition to AfD Participation
Both reports note that other parties continue to rule out cooperation with the AfD. This exclusionary position limits coalition options to the two three-party configurations described above and underscores the political isolation of the AfD despite its poll surge.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The two source articles differ slightly in describing the hypothetical election date: one cites “Sunday,” while the other names “26 April.” No direct statements from party leaders or the INSA institute are provided, leaving the rationale behind the parties’ refusal to cooperate with the AfD undocumented. Additionally, the poll does not break down the 11 percent of votes destined for parties below the threshold, nor does it indicate regional variations in AfD support.
What’s Next
The next federal election, scheduled for the spring of 2026, will test whether the AfD can translate its polling lead into parliamentary seats and whether the Union, SPD and Greens or the Union, SPD and Left will form a governing coalition. Political analysts will monitor subsequent polls for shifts in voter intent and any changes in parties’ willingness to engage with the AfD.
