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Goldman: Gulf Oil Rebound 70% in 3 Months Post-Hormuz

4/26/2026

50 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Goldman Sachs Predicts Rebound

Goldman Sachs says Gulf crude oil could rebound once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
It estimates 14.5 million barrels per day—57% of pre-war supply—were offline in April.
The bank projects 70% of the loss could return in three months and 88% in six months.
Empty tanker capacity fell about 130 million barrels (?50%), limiting exports; Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ramp up faster than Iran and Iraq, whose shut-ins risk reservoir damage.

Summary

Trump Orders Navy

President Donald Trump ordered the Navy to shoot any small boat laying mines in the Strait, posting it on Truth Social.
The U.S. Navy blocked Iran-linked ships, sending Marine boarding parties to seize them, cutting Tehran’s revenue.
Saudi Arabia routes oil through the East-West Pipeline to the Red Sea while the United Arab Emirates (UAE) uses pipelines to Fujairah and plans to eliminate its 50% Hormuz-exposed exports within 2.5–3 years.

History

Historical Context

After Iraq invaded Kuwait on 2 August 1990, the oil-price shock sent crude from $17 to $36 per barrel by October and halted a large portion of Gulf flow. OPEC’s response and UN sanctions reshaped regional output, prompting Saudi Arabia and the UAE to raise production. The episode shows how strait closures can instantly curtail supply, a pattern echoed in today’s naval threats.

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Goldman Sachs Predicts Rebound

Goldman Sachs says Gulf crude oil could rebound once the Strait of Hormuz reopens.
It estimates 14.5 million barrels per day—57% of pre-war supply—were offline in April.
The bank projects 70% of the loss could return in three months and 88% in six months.
Empty tanker capacity fell about 130 million barrels (?50%), limiting exports; Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ramp up faster than Iran and Iraq, whose shut-ins risk reservoir damage.

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