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Hormuz Strait Partial Closure Until 2026, Reroutes Add Weeks

4/26/2026

50 12 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Baker Hughes projects the Strait of Hormuz will be partially closed until the second half of 2026.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s naval blockade and Iran’s closure have cut traffic to three vessels, while Kalshi and Polymarket give less than a 50% chance of normal traffic by June 1.
Shippers have rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days because war-risk insurance was withdrawn and the strait is unsafe.

History

Historical Context

When Iran seized the Strait of Hormuz after the 1979 revolution, about 20 % of world oil flow was stopped. In 2026, Iran again closed the strait during the Iran-U.S./Israel war, cutting roughly the same 20 % of global oil shipments and raising insurance costs for tankers. Baker Hughes then forecast a partial shutdown.

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Story summary

Baker Hughes projects the Strait of Hormuz will be partially closed until the second half of 2026.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s naval blockade and Iran’s closure have cut traffic to three vessels, while Kalshi and Polymarket give less than a 50% chance of normal traffic by June 1.
Shippers have rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10-14 days because war-risk insurance was withdrawn and the strait is unsafe.

1 / 2