Story perspectives

DOJ Charges Soldier, Triggers Bill Banning Employee Prediction-Market Trading

4/27/2026

Summary

Story summary

The DOJ charged an Army soldier after he bet $33,000 on Polymarket that a raid to capture Nicolás Maduro would happen, then withdrew $400,000, and fined Kalshi while suspending candidates for insider trading.
A Polymarket trader earned $300,000 by betting on four pardons President Biden issued, prompting Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) to co-sponsor a bill banning employees from prediction-market trading.
Robin Hanson said prediction markets reveal information faster than news.

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Story summary

The DOJ charged an Army soldier after he bet $33,000 on Polymarket that a raid to capture Nicolás Maduro would happen, then withdrew $400,000, and fined Kalshi while suspending candidates for insider trading.
A Polymarket trader earned $300,000 by betting on four pardons President Biden issued, prompting Senator Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) to co-sponsor a bill banning employees from prediction-market trading.
Robin Hanson said prediction markets reveal information faster than news.