Public Support for Transgender Women in U.S. College Sports Falls Sharply (2019-2024)

Two national surveys—spring 2019 (N = 1,508) and August 2024 (N = 1,506)—show a sharp drop in support for transgender women competing on women’s college teams, especially among Republicans.

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The authors apply social-categorization theory, noting that mismatches among identity, perception, and law enable an “exclusion frame” that casts minorities as threats. Title IX provides the policy backdrop.

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Political scientists James N. Druckman (University of Rochester) and Elizabeth A. Sharrow authored the study, published in *Political Research Quarterly*. The 2019 data were repurposed; the 2024 survey added items on bans and cultural threat.

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Both surveys used a seven-point Likert scale (strongly oppose -> strongly support). In 2024, Republican support for trans-inclusion fell enough to reverse its positive link with Title IX; Democrats kept a positive association. The analysis controlled for age, education, race, income, gender-role beliefs, and varsity sports experience.

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Druckman called the result a “substantial decline” and linked the Republican flip to rhetoric portraying a threat to cisgender athletes. He noted cross-sectional data cannot confirm individual changes or causal mechanisms. He also said the study cannot determine whether the rhetoric or respondents’ personal experiences drove the shift.

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The study attributes the Republican shift to conservative messaging that frames transgender athletes as a cultural threat, decoupling Title IX support from trans-inclusion and prompting opposition among many GOP voters.

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Because the surveys sampled different respondents, the study cannot track individual opinion changes. The 2019 questionnaire omitted religious or moral variables, limiting insight into personal drivers of opposition.

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The findings show how politicized framing can reshape public consensus on civil-rights issues, influencing future legislation, athletic policies, and the scope of Title IX protections for transgender athletes amid growing partisan polarization.

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The authors plan to examine how ambiguous identity claims evolve and to incorporate variables such as religious belief and moral values in future surveys.

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• “We had written a book on gender equality in college sports, looking at why there have not been more aggressive policies toward gender equality in the post-Title IX era,” — James N. Druckman, Professor of Political Science, University of Rochester

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• “The main finding is that support for transgender women/girls participation on women/girls teams substantially declined over the five-year period of 2019 to 2024,” — James N. Druckman, PsyPost interview

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• “Moreover, for Republicans the relationship between support for a gender equity policy (Title IX) and support for trans-inclusion flipped from positive to negative,” — James N. Druckman, PsyPost interview

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• “The shift presumably reflects the rhetoric on the issue that emphasized the threat of trans-participation for cisgender women,” — James N. Druckman, PsyPost interview

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