Violence Surge in Southwest Colombia Ahead of Presidential Election

Since Friday, dissident factions of the former Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC-EMC) have carried out 26 coordinated attacks using explosives and drones across southwest Colombia. The most lethal incident occurred on the Pan-American Highway between Cali and Popayán, near a tunnel in Cajibío, where an improvised explosive device detonated on Saturday. The death toll, initially reported as “at least a dozen,” rose to 21 fatalities by Monday. The attacks have targeted transport routes, mining sites, and communities in the provinces of Cauca and Valle del Cauca.

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

President Gustavo Petro’s “total peace” policy seeks negotiated settlements with remaining rebel groups, offering ceasefires and political dialogue. After the FARC-EMC entered peace talks in late 2023, a faction led by Néstor Vera (“Iván Mordisco”) abandoned the process in April 2024 and resumed armed operations. The government’s strategy has been criticized for allowing groups to regroup and rearm under ceasefire cover.

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• Iván Mordisco (Néstor Vera) – Leader of the dissident FARC-EMC faction, former FARC member who rejected the 2016 peace deal.

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• FARC-EMC – Dissident guerrilla network controlling drug-trafficking routes and illegal gold mines in Cauca and Valle del Cauca.

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• President Gustavo Petro – Former guerrilla member, barred from re-election, champion of “total peace.”

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

• Iván Cepeda – Petro’s party candidate, pledges to continue peace talks.

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

• Colombian Defense Minister – Reports a decline in kidnappings and lockdowns in Cauca over the past year.

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

• 26 attacks since Friday (explosives, drones, car bombs).

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

• 21 deaths in the highway blast (initial reports cited “a dozen”).

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• Provinces affected: Cauca, Valle del Cauca.

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

• Decrease in kidnappings/lockdowns in Cauca, per defense ministry.

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The surge occurs weeks before the May 31 presidential election, where 14 candidates—including Cepeda, conservatives Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia—vie for office. Security concerns are likely to dominate campaign rhetoric, influencing voter perceptions of the “total peace” approach versus a hard-line military response. The attacks also threaten the government’s leverage in any future negotiations with armed groups.

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• The Colombian Defense Ministry attributed the highway explosion to the FARC-EMC.

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• The Defense Minister noted a year-long reduction in kidnappings and community lockdowns in Cauca, crediting recent security operations.

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• Iván Cepeda publicly rejected the attacks, calling for an investigation into possible electoral interference.

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• Opposition conservatives have pledged to intensify military pressure on rebel groups before resuming any talks.

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Political science professor Javier Garay (Universidad Externado) described the government’s peace policy as “naïve,” arguing that a conciliatory stance has failed to deter armed groups. Conservative candidates argue that the current approach emboldens rebels and jeopardizes public safety.

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• “Part of what they are doing is establishing leverage towards the future,” — Sergio Guzmán, political risk analyst, Bogotá

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• “The government’s peace policy has been naïve,” — Javier Garay, political science professor, Universidad Externado

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• “It is worrying that these terrorist actions are happening in a region where there is ample support for our political project,” — Iván Cepeda, presidential candidate

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• “Government supporters will use the attacks as an opportunity to say that that this is exactly why we need to reach urgent agreements with (rebel) groups,” — Sergio Guzmán

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• “Detractors will say this is why we need to more aggressively attack them.” — Sergio Guzmán

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote

Early media accounts cited “at least a dozen” fatalities, later updated to 21 deaths, indicating a lag in casualty verification. While the defense ministry attributes the attacks to the FARC-EMC, no independent forensic confirmation has been published, leaving some uncertainty about the precise perpetrators.

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Colombian authorities have pledged investigations into the attacks’ possible links to electoral manipulation. The May 31 vote will test public confidence in the “total peace” agenda versus a hard-line security approach. Post-election, the government’s handling of the dissident threat will shape the trajectory of peace negotiations and regional stability.

Violence escalates in Colombia with dozens of attacks before presidential vote