Fertilizer Supply Disruption from the Iran Conflict Threatens Global Harvests

The United States and Israel’s war against Iran, which began in late February 2024, has closed the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. The strait handles about 35 % of global urea shipments and 45 % of total urea trade. Closure halted exports from Qatar’s giant urea plant and curtailed sulphur and ammonia flows, sparking the sharpest fertilizer price surge since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.

Bloomberg

The Persian Gulf supplies one-third of urea, with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and the UAE exporting via Hormuz. Analysts estimate a loss of at least 2 million metric tons—about 3 % of annual seaborne trade—while CRU reports a 55-60 % cut in output. Argus data show roughly 1 million tons of fertilizer stranded, and Bloomberg tracks only 11 ships transiting the strait, four carrying urea.

Bloomberg

The United Nations warned that prolonged fertilizer shortages could heighten food insecurity in import-dependent nations. The International Grains Council has trimmed its 2025-2026 wheat and corn forecasts. Rabobank’s Stephen Nicholson said the market “will take a while to get back to normal.” U.S. farmers say aid fell short; the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program covered only about 20 % of losses, leaving many unable to buy nitrogen or diesel.

Times of Israel

In Western Australia, wheat planting area may fall 14 % as growers avoid fertilizer-intensive crops. Brazilian analysts warn soybean growers may switch to cheaper ammonium sulphate. European agronomists note reduced nitrogen top-ups could lower wheat protein, while Southeast Asian palm-oil yields risk decline from nutrient shortfalls in young trees. These trends show the Hormuz bottleneck reshaping planting decisions across major grain and oilseed regions.

Times of Israel

Estimates of the urea shortfall diverge: Argus cites a 2 million-ton loss, while CRU’s 55-60 % output cut implies a larger volume. Vessel counts also vary, with one source reporting 1 million tons stranded and another listing 44 vessels, only 11 of which have transited. Forecasts for the 2027 harvest remain uncertain, with analysts like Benoit Fayaud warning of possible area reductions but lacking concrete data.

Bloomberg

• “Back in 2022, a lot of the fertilizer was ultimately flowing through,” — Shawn Arita, NDSU

Times of Israel

• “It’s going to take a while to get back to normal,” — Stephen Nicholson, Rabobank

Times of Israel

• “'When elephants fight, it's the ants that get crushed.' The ants are getting crushed.” — Sledge Taylor, Mississippi farmer

NPR

• “Right now I'm paying 60% more for diesel fuel than I would have been paying 45 days ago,” — Anthony Bland, Mississippi farmer

NPR

Analysts warn a reopened Strait will leave a vessel backlog, keeping fertilizer markets tight for months. International bodies urge a protected shipping corridor to resume flows. The 2027 harvest outlook remains uncertain, with early area cuts reported in Australia and Europe. Ongoing hostilities could deepen food-price inflation and raise hunger risk in vulnerable regions.

Times of Israel