Full Breakdown
Jet-Fuel Shortage Threatens European Summer Travel
4/28/2026, 7:37:28 AM
Conflict-Driven Fuel Squeeze
U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran in late February led Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, a route for about 20 % of oil and jet-fuel. The IEA warns Europe may have only six weeks of jet fuel if the closure persists.
Price Surge and Supply Gap
Jet-fuel prices have doubled to $185-$209 per barrel, outpacing the 55 % Brent rise. European refineries supply 1.1 million barrels daily, far below the 1.6 million needed, leaving a 500 000-barrel shortfall that must be imported, 75 % of which normally comes from the Middle East.
Airline Capacity Reductions
Lufthansa will cancel 20 000 short-haul flights through October, saving 40 000 tonnes of fuel. Ryanair warns of a 5-10 % route cut if the war continues, KLM dropped 80 return flights, and SAS cancelled about 1 000 flights in April. Long-haul fares rose 70 %+ on routes such as London-Melbourne and London-Hong Kong.
Official Responses and Conflicting Views
IATA director-general Willie Walsh warned cancellations could start by end-May. Transport commissioner Apostolos Tzitzikostas said there is no evidence of actual shortages and no widespread cancellations are expected. Energy commissioner Dan Jørgensen warned the crisis costs €500 million daily. Lufthansa framed cuts as targeting “unprofitable routes” and said fuel is sufficient for the near term.
Consumer Impact and Ground Views
Consumer-rights group Which? found airlines are not adding surcharges, though tour operators may raise prices up to 8 % under “rise in fuel costs”. Jane Hawkes urged travellers to stay flexible, buy insurance and keep a contingency fund. Volotea’s surcharge on tickets has been challenged. ENAC called the situation “quite critical”, warning of price hikes and schedule changes, while Wizz Air reported fuel shortages at Venice, Brindisi and Catania that were resolved within hours. Passengers face uncertainty as airlines claim fuel-related cancellations may be “extraordinary circumstances”, exempting them from compensation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There's no right or wrong,” — Jane Hawkes, commentator
- “In Europe, we have maybe six weeks or so (of) jet fuel left,” — Fatih Birol, IEA
- “We don't expect any disruption until early May, but if the war continues, we do run the risk of supply disruptions in Europe in May and June,” — Michael O'Leary, Ryanair
- “We have also estimated that by the end of May we could start to see some cancellations in Europe for lack of jet fuel. This is already happening in parts of Asia.” — Willie Walsh, IATA
- “In no other European country, so far, have we experienced a fuel shortage,” — Jozsef Varadi, Wizz Air
Future Outlook
The Commission has created a “fuel observatory” to monitor supplies, and consumer-protection bodies will issue guidance on “extraordinary circumstances” by May. Analysts warn capacity cuts if alternative imports cover less than half of the 500 000-barrel daily shortfall, pushing shortages into June or July.
