Full Breakdown
U.S. Missile Stockpile Depletion in Iran War Raises Concerns for Taiwan Contingency
4/28/2026, 9:09:17 AM
War Overview and Pre-War Stockpiles
Operation Epic Fury lasted 39 days before a ceasefire. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) recorded U.S. pre-war inventories of roughly 3,100 Tomahawk land-attack missiles, 4,400 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM), 90 Precision Strike Missiles (PrSM), 410 Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptors, 1,160 Standard Missile-6 (SM-6) missiles, 360 Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors, and 2,330 Patriot PAC-3 interceptors.
Munitions Expenditure
During the conflict the United States used over 1,000 Tomahawks, about 1,100 JASSMs, 40-70 PrSMs, 130-250 SM-3s, 190-370 SM-6s, 190-290 THAAD interceptors, and 1,060-1,430 Patriot interceptors. Unit costs range from $1.6 million for a PrSM to $28.7 million for an SM-3 interceptor, highlighting the financial scale of replenishment.
Strategic Implications for the Indo-Pacific
Analysts warn that the shortfall limits U.S. capacity to counter China’s anti-access/area-denial strategy in a Taiwan scenario. The Wall Street Journal notes that 27 % of the Tomahawk inventory, two-thirds of Patriot interceptors, and over 80 % of THAAD interceptors were expended, creating a capability gap that could persist for years.
Official U.S. Response
Pentagon officials assert that current stockpiles remain sufficient for the ceasefire and point to production agreements with RTX to raise annual Tomahawk output above 1,000 units and to increase SM-6 production to more than 500 missiles per year. The Trump administration has framed these expansions as moving the missile industrial base onto a “wartime footing.”
Analyst Critique
Security scholars stress the risk of a near-term China conflict before inventories recover. Kelly Grieco warned the United States would face higher cost and risk, while the CSIS report cautioned that high-cost interceptors cannot be used against low-cost drones, urging cheaper complementary systems.
Conflicting Data
Washington Post reported more than 850 Tomahawks, while the Wall Street Journal and CSIS cite over 1,000. Bloomberg noted more than 1,000 JASSM-ER launches; CSIS estimates about 1,100. Precise counts for PrSM and SM-3 remain expressed as ranges rather than fixed totals.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Prewar inventories were already insufficient” for a peer conflict, particularly in the Western Pacific. — CSIS report
- “It also highlighted low-cost drone defense systems such as APKWS rockets, Anduril’s Roadrunner, Raytheon’s Coyote, and C-RAM guns, arguing the United States cannot afford to routinely use $1 million or $4 million interceptors against low-cost drones.” — CSIS report
- “So, the CSIS argues that the answer is not simply buying more premium missiles but also fielding cheaper complementary systems.” — CSIS report
- “The United States would have to fight China at potentially far greater cost and risk,” — Kelly Grieco, Stimson Center
Future Replenishment Outlook
CSIS projects 42-64 months to replace depleted systems, with Tomahawk delivery taking about 47 months and SM-3 Block IIA up to 64 months. RTX and Lockheed Martin have announced capacity expansions, but near-term deliveries will stay limited; Japan’s planned 400 Tomahawks may be delayed. Restoring pre-war levels could take one to four years, while inventories adequate for a China contingency will require a longer horizon.
