Full Breakdown
Portugal’s Fighter-Jet Decision: European Gripen-E vs U.S. F-35
4/28/2026, 7:12:07 AM
Core Event – A Critical Procurement Crossroads
Portugal must replace its aging fleet of 28 F-16 fighters. Defense Minister Nuno Melo has publicly questioned the near-finalized purchase of U.S. Lockheed Martin F-35 jets, citing doubts about U.S. commitment to NATO under President Donald Trump. Simultaneously, Sweden’s Saab is offering its Gripen-E as a “truly European solution.” The final choice will determine whether Portugal’s next fighter comes from Washington or Stockholm.
Background & Data – A Fast-Growing Domestic Arms Sector
Over the past five years, Portugal’s defense industry has expanded dramatically. The sector generated €2.1 billion in revenue last year and now employs roughly 20 000 people across 160 organizations in the AED Cluster Portugal. Companies such as OGMA, Tekever, and Critical Software supply components, drones, and software to international programs. The government is also pursuing NATO’s 5 % of GDP defense-spending target, buying frigates from Italy, tanks from Germany, and evaluating new fighter options.
Key Figures & Groups – Decision-Makers and Industry Partners
- Nuno Melo – Portuguese Defense Minister, skeptical of the F-35.
- Daniel Boestad – Vice President of Saab’s Gripen program, championing European industrial ties.
- José Neves – Head of AED Cluster Portugal, highlighting sector growth.
- João Carreira – CEO of Critical Software, developing a Gripen-E flight simulator and AI co-pilot.
- Bruno Oliveira Martins – Analyst at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), critical of Portuguese reliance on the U.S.
- OGMA, Tekever, Critical Software, Saab, Lockheed Martin – principal firms involved.
Official Statements & Responses – Government and Industry Positions
Minister Melo has expressed that the United States’ recent political stance weakens confidence in a long-term partnership, prompting a review of non-U.S. alternatives. Saab’s Boestad indicated readiness to cooperate on production, maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) and to involve Portuguese firms such as OGMA in component manufacturing. Neves described the sector as a “serious player” with expanding export capabilities, while Carreira emphasized Critical Software’s collaborations with Airbus, Diehl, and Rheinmetall, and its work on military satellites, drones and missile systems.
Criticism & Opposition – Concerns Over Autonomy and Cost
Bruno Oliveira Martins warned that Portugal’s historically “uncritical stance” toward the U.S. airbase in the Azores reflects limited autonomy, suggesting the country cannot easily defy Washington by buying non-American jets. He also argued that European defense development does not require the most advanced technology; procuring “good enough” equipment can still meet many operational needs.
Impact & Why It Matters – European Sovereignty and Economic Stakes
Choosing the Gripen-E could embed Portuguese firms deeper into European supply chains, enhancing technological sovereignty and creating long-term industrial partnerships. Conversely, opting for the F-35 would maintain strong U.S. ties but may limit domestic participation and increase procurement costs. The decision will influence Portugal’s ability to meet NATO spending goals, sustain its growing defense workforce, and shape the broader trajectory of a European-centric defense market.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The Gripen-E would be a truly European solution,” — Daniel Boestad, Saab
- “The Gripen-E would strengthen Portuguese and European strategic defense capabilities through long-term industrial partnerships and technological sovereignty.” — Daniel Boestad, Saab
- “Our goal is to develop an AI co-pilot for the Gripen-E,” — João Carreira, Critical Software
- “Portugal's uncritical stance towards the US use of the US airbase in the Azores during the Iran-Iraq war suggests that the Portuguese government possesses little autonomy and resolve to stand up to the US in military matters,” — Bruno Oliveira Martins, PRIO
- “And the trend is upward,” — José Neves, AED Cluster Portugal
What’s Next – Timeline for the Fighter-Jet Choice
The procurement decision is expected to be finalized before the end of 2025, after a formal evaluation of cost, industrial participation, and strategic alignment. A definitive selection will trigger contract negotiations, potential technology transfer agreements, and the commencement of domestic production or integration activities, shaping Portugal’s defense posture for the next decade.
