Story perspectives

France’s Fertility Plummets Below Replacement, Hits “Lowest-Low”

4/28/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Fertility rates in France and other high-income nations have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The demographic transition began in nineteenth-century France.
After the 1960s baby boom, fertility declined to historically low levels.
Rates at or below 1.3 children per woman are classified as “lowest-low fertility.”
Myrskylä et al. reported that around 2005 the negative total-fertility-rate–Human Development Index relationship reverses above an HDI of roughly 0.86.

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Story summary

Fertility rates in France and other high-income nations have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.
The demographic transition began in nineteenth-century France.
After the 1960s baby boom, fertility declined to historically low levels.
Rates at or below 1.3 children per woman are classified as “lowest-low fertility.”
Myrskylä et al. reported that around 2005 the negative total-fertility-rate–Human Development Index relationship reverses above an HDI of roughly 0.86.