Full Breakdown
UAE Announces Exit from OPEC and OPEC+ Effective 1 May 2026
4/28/2026, 8:16:46 PM
Core Event: UAE Leaves OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026
On 28 April 2026 the United Arab Emirates announced it will withdraw from OPEC and the OPEC+ alliance on 1 May 2026, ending nearly six decades of membership. The UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq.
Context and Key Actors
OPEC, founded in 1960, has 11 members after UAE’s exit. The Emirates joined in 1967. Since 2024 Iran’s missile and drone attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz—through which about one-fifth of global oil passes—have hampered UAE exports and strained ties with Saudi Arabia, which is increasingly at odds with Abu Dhabi over regional issues. Key parties are UAE Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Iranian leadership, and former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Production Capacity and Market Data
The UAE produced 2.9 million bpd in 2024 (BBC) and about 3.4 million bpd before the 28 Feb 2026 US-Israel-Iran war (2 News). Spare capacity is about 660,000 bpd; installed capacity estimates range from 4.8 million to a 5 million-bpd target. OPEC’s total capacity falls by roughly 15 % after the UAE’s exit, removing about one-fifth of output. Brent crude traded above $111 per barrel following the announcement.
Official Statements
The UAE Ministry of Energy said the withdrawal reflects a strategic vision and a commitment to a “responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in energy markets.” It added the timing minimizes price disruption and that the Emirates will “bring additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand.” Former President Trump welcomed the move, calling OPEC a “price-ripping” cartel.
Criticism and Opposition
Climate activists say expanding UAE output conflicts with emission-reduction goals. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum declared there is “no energy transition—only energy addition.” Saudi-UAE rivalry over Red-Sea influence and the Gulf Cooperation Council’s weak response to Iranian attacks were noted by Anwar Gargash.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on UAE output—2.9 million bpd versus 3.4 million bpd—and on idle capacity, cited as 660,000 bpd or an unspecified “spare” amount. No comment from Saudi Arabia or OPEC on procedural details leaves quota-impact unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity – the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence.” — Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy
- “Today’s the day to announce that there is no energy transition. There is only energy addition.” — Doug Burgum, U.S. Interior Secretary
- “With the UAE leaving, Opec loses about 15% of its capacity and one of its most compliant members.” — Saul Kavonic, MST Financial
- “The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically,” — Anwar Gargash, Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President
Impact and Outlook
Analysts warn that losing a member weakens OPEC’s ability to balance supply, shifting stabilization onto Saudi Arabia and raising volatility risk if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. OPEC+ meets on 3 May 2026; the UAE plans a rise toward 5 million bpd.
