Full Breakdown
UK Population Projection Revised Down to 71 Million Amid Slowing Immigration
4/28/2026, 8:36:10 PM
Revised Projection: 71 Million by Mid-2034
On 28 April, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) cut the United Kingdom’s mid-2034 population forecast to 71.0 million, down from 72.2 million two years earlier. The change reflects lower net-migration and a slight drop in assumed fertility.
Background: Post-COVID Immigration Surge and Policy Shift
After the COVID-19 pandemic, the United Kingdom saw a sharp rise in net immigration, driven by pent-up demand and a decision by former Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government to relax entry rules for low-paid care workers and their families. Net immigration peaked at nearly one million in the year to June 2023 before tighter rules reduced inflows to 204 000 by June 2025.
Recent Immigration Trends and Policy Shifts
Net immigration is projected to add 2.2 million people to the UK’s 69.3 million population from mid-2024 to mid-2034, after a peak of almost one million arrivals in the year to June 2023. The ONS links the subsequent drop to tighter rules, with net migration falling to 204 000 in the year to June 2025, versus the 340 000 annual assumption in the 2024 report.
Key Actors
- Office for National Statistics (ONS) – the agency producing the projection.
- Rachel Reeves – Finance Minister, facing potential fiscal pressure from slower growth.
- Boris Johnson – Former Prime Minister whose policy eased immigration for low-paid care workers, fueling the earlier surge.
Data & Statistics
- Projected mid-2034 population: 71.0 million (down from 72.2 million).
- Net migration 2024-2034: 2.2 million total; annual assumption cut to 230 000 from 340 000.
- Fertility assumption: 1.42 children per woman (down from 1.45).
- Deaths exceed births: drag of 450 000 over the decade.
- Ageing: pensioners rise 15 % to 14.2 million; under-16s fall 13 %.
- Regional growth: England +2.9 %; Wales +1.0 %; Northern Ireland +0.6 %; Scotland +0.3 % by mid-2034.
Fiscal and Demographic Implications
The ONS warns that slower growth may heighten fiscal pressure on Finance Minister Rachel Reeves, with a shrinking working-age pool and rising pensioner numbers. The ageing profile also raises demand on health and social-care services. The agency stresses the projections are not definitive, as they rely on recent trends and omit possible policy changes.
Official Statements & Responses
The ONS said the revised net-migration assumption “reflects the sharp decrease in net migration since it peaked in 2023, as well as expert advice.” It added that the forecasts extrapolate recent patterns and do not aim to predict future policy or demographic shifts.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The ONS notes uncertainty, as the figures omit possible policy changes, fertility shifts, or unexpected mortality. No alternative projections were provided, creating a gap in comparative forecasting.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This reflects the sharp decrease in net migration since it peaked in 2023, as well as expert advice,” — Office for National Statistics
What’s Next
Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to discuss the fiscal impact of the revised outlook in her autumn budget. The ONS will keep updating its estimates as immigration trends and policies evolve.
