Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Narrow Lead Over GOP Candidates
4/28/2026, 8:42:59 PM
Poll Results
TPOR surveyed 1,018 likely voters (April 17-20). James Talarico leads John Cornyn 44 %-41 % and Ken Paxton 46 %-41 %, each within the ±3.3-point margin of error.
Election Context
No Democrat has won a statewide Texas race since 1994; the Cook Report rates the seat “likely Republican.” In the March primary, Cornyn finished first and Paxton second, with Cornyn ahead by roughly 26,000 votes, leading to a May 26 runoff for the GOP nomination.
Demographics & Favorability
Talarico leads Black voters 51 points over Cornyn and 56 over Paxton, Latino voters 32 and 27 points, and independents 51 %-29 % vs. Cornyn, 53 %-28 % vs. Paxton. His favorability is 41 % favorable, 34 % unfavorable; Cornyn and Paxton trail by 15 and 10 points.
Pastor Controversy
Pastor Jim Rigby referenced the recent Trump assassination attempt in a Sunday sermon, leading Sen. John Cornyn to demand Talarico condemn the remarks. Talarico’s campaign denounced political violence but did not address Rigby’s comments.
Official Responses
Cornyn’s X post demanded a condemnation. Talarico thanked officials for safety after the White House Correspondents’ Dinner shooting and called political violence “unacceptable.” Republican officials Kraft and Cantrell criticized Talarico’s silence; Rigby said his words were edited.
Opposition View
Republican critics say Talarico’s link to Rigby signals radical rhetoric; his campaign points to his explicit condemnation of violence and calls Cornyn’s demand partisan pressure.
Conflicting Data
The Democratic lead sits within the ±3.3-point margin, while past Texas polls have overstated Democratic prospects. Talarico’s silence on Rigby’s sermon leaves a factual gap.
Timeline
Early voting for the Republican runoff runs May 18-22; Election Day is May 26. Voter registration ends today. The runoff winner will meet Talarico in November.
Verbatim Quotes
- “James Talarico claims to be campaigning on love and kindness, but his Pastor made light of an assassination attempt on the President of the United States in Washington, DC this weekend where a Secret Service officer was seriously injured,” — John Cornyn, U.S. Senator (R-Texas)
- “I am thankful the President, Vice President, and the rest of the White House Correspondents' Dinner attendees are safe after last night's shooting," Talarico said in the statement.” — James Talarico, Texas State Representative (Democrat)
- “In my sermon yesterday I made it perfectly clear that violence is not the answer. Senator Cornyn is editing my words to deceive voters in Texas,” — Dr. Jim Rigby, Pastor
- “Democrats have fanned the flames of radical left-wing violence for years and gleefully put targets on the back of President Trump, Charlie Kirk and conservatives, and conservatives across America.” — Zach Kraft, Republican National Committee spokesman
