Goldman Sachs Raises Brent Forecast Amid Hormuz Closure

Goldman Sachs lifted its Brent crude outlook to an average of $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter, up from the prior $80 estimate. The bank also raised its current-quarter forecast to $100 and its third-quarter outlook to $93. By contrast, Morgan Stanley left its Brent projections unchanged at $110 for the current quarter, $100 for Q3 and $90 for Q4.

Bloomberg

A double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, triggered by the Iran-U.S. conflict, has reduced tanker traffic through the chokepoint to near-zero. The resulting supply shock has cut ?14.5 million barrels per day of Persian-Gulf crude production, forcing the market into an “extreme” inventory draw.

Bloomberg

Goldman’s note was authored by analysts Daan Struyven and Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby. Their calculations drive the revised price targets and the assumptions about Gulf-export normalization.

Bloomberg

• Production loss: 14.5 million bpd of Persian-Gulf crude.

Bloomberg

• Inventory draw: 11–12 million bpd in April (Goldman) versus a 4.8 million bpd decline reported by Morgan Stanley.

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis

• Market deficit: 9.6 million bpd this quarter, reversing a surplus recorded a year earlier.

Goldman Hikes Oil Price Forecasts on ‘Extreme’ Inventory Draws

• Price movement: Brent has risen nearly 50 % since late February; futures trade around $108 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis

• WTI: Approximately $96 per barrel.

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis

Goldman warns that the “economic risks are larger than our crude base-case alone” because higher oil prices could lift refined-product costs, trigger product-shortage risks, and amplify inflationary pressures. If the supply shock endures, “even sharper demand destruction may be required,” potentially stalling global growth.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Disruption Tightens Supply

Goldman’s analysts emphasized that the current inventory draw is unsustainable and that a “normalization in Gulf exports by end-June, versus mid-May prior, and a slower Gulf production recovery” is now assumed. They also highlighted the market’s dual reality—largely closed to traffic yet expected to reopen imminently—underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the recovery timeline.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Disruption Tightens Supply

Morgan Stanley maintained its more aggressive Brent forecasts, reflecting a belief that price pressures may persist despite the inventory draw estimates. JPMorgan, citing “global losses of nearly 14 million bpd in April,” echoed concerns that modest supply shocks can trigger sharp price spikes due to inelastic demand, reinforcing the upside-risk bias.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Disruption Tightens Supply

Goldman estimates an 11–12 million bpd inventory draw, while Morgan Stanley reports a 4.8 million bpd decline, illustrating divergent assessments of the draw’s magnitude. Additionally, data on the exact volume of halted shipments remains incomplete, limiting precise forecasting.

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis

• “We estimate that 14.5 million barrels a day of Persian Gulf crude production losses are driving global oil inventories to draw at a record 11 to 12 million barrel-a-day pace in April,” — Daan Struyven, Goldman Sachs analyst

Bloomberg

• “Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil market has mostly existed in two states at once: closed to most traffic, but not entirely; expected to be opened at any moment, but little change so far,” — Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby, Goldman Sachs analyst

Bloomberg

• “The economic risks are larger than our crude base-case alone suggests because of the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined-product prices, products shortages risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock.” — Goldman Sachs analysts

Bloomberg

• “Such an extreme inventory draw is unsustainable, and even sharper demand destruction may be required if the supply shock persists,” — Goldman Sachs analysts

Goldman Sachs raises oil price forecasts amid Hormuz crisis

• “We now assume a normalization in Gulf exports by end-June, versus mid-May prior, and a slower Gulf production recovery,” — Goldman Sachs analysts

Bloomberg

Goldman expects Gulf-export normalization by the end of June, but monitors inventory trends and geopolitical developments closely. Continued tightness could push Brent above $100 per barrel, while any de-escalation in the Hormuz dispute may alleviate price pressures and reduce the upside risk to global inflation.

Goldman Sachs Raises Oil Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Disruption Tightens Supply