Full Breakdown
2026 NBA Draft Lottery: Odds, Timeline, and Prospects
4/29/2026, 3:07:39 AM
Lottery Odds
The May 10 lottery will determine the order for the June 23-24 draft at Barclays Center. The Washington Wizards, Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets each have a 14 % chance at No. 1. The Utah Jazz and Sacramento Kings have 11.5 % each, Memphis 9 %, Atlanta 6.8 % (plus 3 % via a swap with Milwaukee), Dallas 6.7 %, Chicago 4.5 % and Golden State 2 %. Oklahoma City (1.5 % via a Clippers swap), Miami (1 %) and Charlotte (0.5 %) complete the lottery. The Warriors’ odds for a top-four pick are 2 % (first), 2.2 % (second), 2.4 % (third) and 2.8 % (fourth). Players must file by June 13, 5 p.m. ET to be eligible for the combine and draft.
Key Dates
- Early-entry deadline: June 13, 5 p.m. ET.
- Lottery drawing: May 10, 3 p.m. ET (broadcast on ABC/ESPN).
- NBA Draft Combine: scheduled for early June (exact date not specified in sources).
- Draft: June 23-24, 2026 at Barclays Center, Brooklyn, televised on ESPN.
Top Prospects and Mock Draft
Jeremy Woo’s mock places BYU forward AJ Dybantsa at No. 1 (Washington). Dybantsa logged 894 points (25.5 ppg), 19 program records and earned Consensus All-American and Big 12 Freshman honors. Kansas guard Darryn Peterson (Indiana) is projected No. 2 after averaging 20.2 points, 4.2 rebounds and posting a 32-point game versus TCU. Duke forward Cameron Boozer (Brooklyn) sits at No. 3 with 22.5 points, 10.2 rebounds and a National Player of the Year award. North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson (Utah) remains a top-four candidate despite a broken thumb, averaging 19.8 points and 9.4 rebounds. Additional first-round prospects include Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr. (23.5 points, 6.4 assists), Illinois guard Keaton Wagler (17.9 points, Jerry West Award) and Houston guard Kingston Flemings (16.1 points, 5.2 assists).
NIL Influence and Early-Entry Decisions
Five projected first-rounders—UConn’s Braylon Mullins, Duke’s Patrick Ngongba, Florida’s Thomas Haugh, Arizona’s Motiejus Krivas and Baylor’s Tounde Yessoufou—opted to return after NIL deals. Only Yessoufou kept a draft option open. Their return reshapes the latter half of the first round and the entire second round.
Why the Draft Matters for Franchises
A top-four pick can become a franchise cornerstone. Even teams with low odds—Chicago, Golden State, Milwaukee—could secure a future star if the draw favors them. The class’s depth means a franchise player can be found beyond the No. 1 slot.
Official Analyst Commentary
Jeremy Woo calls the class “full of NBA-ready talent” and singles out Dybantsa, Peterson, Boozer and Wilson as top names. ESPN notes the combine’s role in final evaluations and describes the draft as “highly-touted.”
Criticism & Concerns
Critics argue NIL contracts keep elite talent in college, thinning the draft pool. Injuries, such as Wilson’s broken thumb, add uncertainty to prospect assessments.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources disagree on Yessoufou’s draft intent and on Wilson’s recovery timeline, leaving both players’ draft positions uncertain until the June 13 filing deadline.
