UAE Exits OPEC and OPEC+ Effective May 1, 2026

The United Arab Emirates joined OPEC through Abu Dhabi in 1967 and became a member of the United Arab Emirates when the federation formed in 1971. For almost 60 years the UAE was OPEC’s third-largest producer, contributing roughly 12 percent of the group’s output. Over the past years Abu Dhabi repeatedly complained that OPEC’s production caps limited its ability to sell oil, while Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de-facto leader, resisted raising quotas. The dispute intensified after the United States and Israel launched a war against Iran in February 2026, which closed the Strait of Hormuz and constrained exports for all Gulf producers.

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• Suhail Al Mazrouei (UAE Energy Minister) – announced the withdrawal and framed it as the result of a “careful and long review of all our strategies.”

Reuters

• Saudi Arabia – OPEC’s largest producer, historically set production levels for the cartel.

NPR

• Jorge León (head of geopolitical analysis, Rystad Energy) – provides independent assessments of the market impact.

NPR

• February 2026 production: 3.6 million bpd (Bloomberg survey) vs. 3.3 million bpd (Reuters).

Reuters

• Reported spare capacity: ? 660,000 bpd idle (IEA) versus analyst estimates that the UAE was “near its maximum” (Bloomberg).

Bloomberg

• Planned capacity: 4.85 million bpd (ADNOC) with a target of 5 million bpd by 2027.

Reuters

Analysts note that the UAE and Saudi Arabia together hold the bulk of OPEC’s spare capacity, the “shock-absorber” that stabilises prices. Jorge León warns that the departure “makes OPEC structurally weaker” and forces Saudi Arabia to shoulder a larger share of price-stability duties. Short-term market effects are muted because the Hormuz closure already limits export volumes. Longer-term scenarios envision the UAE increasing output independently, potentially raising global supply and altering the balance of power that has centered on Saudi Arabia.

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The UAE Energy Ministry said the move “reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.” The ministry added that the country will continue to act “responsibly, bringing additional production to market in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.”

The Hill

Diplomatic adviser Anwar Gargash criticized Gulf states for a “weakest historically” political and military stance amid Iranian attacks. U.S. President Donald Trump hailed the exit as a win, reiterating his view that OPEC “rips off the rest of the world.” Some analysts argue the timing minimizes market disruption, while others contend the loss of a major swing producer could destabilise prices once Hormuz reopens.

Reuters

• Production figures differ (3.6 vs 3.3 million bpd).

Reuters

• Spare-capacity estimates range from 660,000 bpd (IEA) to “near-maximum” (Bloomberg).

Bloomberg

• The extent to which the UAE can increase output outside OPEC remains unquantified, as no post-exit production schedule has been disclosed.

Bloomberg

• “This decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production, and reinforces its commitment to a responsible, reliable, and forward-looking role in global energy markets,” — UAE Energy Ministry

United Arab Emirates says it will leave OPEC effective May 1

• “This is a decision that we took after a very careful and long review of all our strategies,” — Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE Energy Minister

Bloomberg

• “Alongside Saudi Arabia, it is one of the few members with meaningful spare capacity – the mechanism through which the group exerts market influence.” — Jorge León, Rystad Energy

The Guardian

• “The Gulf Cooperation Council countries supported each other logistically, but politically and militarily, I think their position has been the weakest historically,” — Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president

The Guardian

• “This opens the door for the UAE to gain global market share when the geopolitical situation normalises,” — Monica Malik, chief economist, ADCB

Reuters

The UAE has signaled plans to raise output by up to 30 percent, aiming for the 5 million bpd target. With Hormuz expected to reopen only after the Iran conflict subsides, the cartel will face a period of reduced export capacity and may need to renegotiate quotas. Regional observers note that the UAE could reassess other multilateral memberships (Arab League, GCC) as it reshapes its foreign-policy posture post-OPEC. Saudi Arabia’s ability to maintain price stability without the UAE’s spare capacity will be a key test for OPEC’s future relevance.

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