Full Breakdown
NBA Proposes “3-2-1” Draft Lottery to Deter Tanking
4/29/2026, 4:29:35 AM
Proposal Details and Timeline
NBA committee advanced the 3-2-1 lottery proposal Tuesday. It expands the lottery to 16 teams: one ball to each No. 7 vs No. 8 play-in loser, two balls to the No. 9 and No. 10 seeds, and three balls to the other ten non-play-in teams; the three worst clubs lose one ball as “draft relegation.” The league will discuss Thursday and send the plan to Board of Governors for a vote next month. The 14-team format will be used for May 10 lottery; the system would start with the 2025 draft.
Recent Tanking Context
After the All-Star break, Washington, Indiana, Utah, Memphis and Brooklyn each posted winning percentages below .180, leading the league to call the season a “race to the bottom.” NBA fined the Utah Jazz $500,000 for “conduct detrimental to the league” after resting two starters in a game it later won. Having revised the lottery several times, the league and Commissioner Adam Silver have pledged to curb tanking before next season.
Lottery Odds and Restrictions
The three worst clubs have a 5.4 % chance at No. 1 and could fall to the 12th slot. Seven non-play-in teams receive the highest odds at 8.1 % for No. 1. No. 9 and No. 10 seeds also have a 5.4 % chance; losers of the No. 7 vs No. 8 play-in games have 2.7 %. The worst clubs have a 72 % chance of falling outside the top five. The plan prohibits back-to-back No. 1 picks, three straight top-five selections, and removes trade protections for picks 12-15.
League Official Statements
Commissioner Adam Silver said the lottery rewards losing and its incentives are misaligned. He said fixing the issue requires an ownership decision and announced the league will gain expanded disciplinary authority to lower odds or adjust draft positions as deterrents to tanking.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The incentives are not necessarily matched here,” — Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
- “This is a decision that needs to be made at the ownership level,” — Adam Silver, NBA Commissioner
- “expanded disciplinary authority” — NBA league statement
Upcoming Vote and Implementation
The committee will reconvene Thursday, then send the proposal to NBA Board of Governors for a vote next month. If approved, the 3-2-1 lottery would start with the 2025 draft, remain through the 2029 draft, and require another vote thereafter to continue or modify the system.
