Full Breakdown
Iran War Disrupts Fertiliser Production and Shipping, Threatening Global Food Security
4/29/2026, 7:56:49 AM
Disruption of Fertiliser Production and Shipping
Since U.S.–Israel strike campaign against Iran began in late February 2026, the Strait of Hormuz has been sealed. The blockage stopped the flow of urea—a key nitrogen fertiliser—while Iranian drone attacks on Qatar, Bahrain and other Gulf facilities damaged plants, forcing manufacturers to curtail output.
Scale of the Shortage
CRU estimates 55 %–60 % of Gulf urea output—2 million tonnes, 3 % of global trade—is idle. Ship-tracking shows only 11 fertiliser-laden vessels have crossed Hormuz since February, while 44 ships, half loaded with urea, remain stranded. Fertiliser prices jumped 31 % (World Bank) and overall commodity costs rose 16 % (Bloomberg). India’s tender paid nearly double for urea.
Impact on Agriculture and Humanitarian Aid
Rising prices are prompting farmers in India, Brazil and Australia to cut or postpone planting, while European growers consider reducing nitrogen use, risking lower wheat protein. In Western Australia, wheat-planting area may fall 14 % as growers avoid fertiliser-intensive crops. In Somalia, delayed therapeutic peanut-paste shipments have left clinics with insufficient supplies for severely malnourished children, prompting the International Rescue Committee to warn of worsening child health.
Official Responses and Criticism
UN officials warned the war “hits global economy in waves” and called for reopening of strait. UK chief secretary Darren Jones told BBC price pressures will linger for “eight-plus months” after conflict ends. Rabobank’s Stephen Nicholson said it will “take a while to get back to normal” for grain markets. World Bank analysts cautioned that rising fertiliser costs could spark hunger crises like those after 2022 Ukraine war in East Africa. NGOs including International Rescue Committee flagged humanitarian toll of interrupted therapeutic-food deliveries.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on loss magnitude: CRU cites a 55 %–60 % output halt, Argus puts the shortfall at 2 million tonnes. Fertiliser price spikes are reported as 31 % (World Bank) versus a 16 % rise in commodity prices (Bloomberg). Stranded vessels count varies between 44 ships (Bloomberg) and 45 % of global urea trade from the Gulf.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The longer this situation lasts, the greater the risk that producers are forced to shut down because storage fills up and there is simply nowhere left to put the product,” — Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst, CRU
- “The minister said on Sunday: “You’re going to see prices go up a bit as a consequence of what Donald Trump has done in the Middle East.” — Darren Jones, UK chief secretary to the Prime Minister
- “Some producers may ultimately reduce fertiliser application, putting yields at risk.” — Andy Jung, Mosaic
- “Even if hostilities end soon and the Hormuz strait reopens, just clearing the queue will take weeks, said Mark Milam of commodity market intelligence firm ICIS.” — Mark Milam, ICIS
What’s Next
Backlog clearance may take weeks and damaged Gulf plants could constrain fertiliser supplies for months. UN and OCHA seek donor funding, while UK and import-dependent governments prepare contingency plans to curb food-price inflation.
