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World Bank: Energy Prices to Jump 24% in 2026

4/29/2026

Summary

World Bank Forecasts

World Bank forecasts energy prices will rise 24% in 2026, the biggest jump since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Hormuz Strait disruptions cut oil supply by 10 million barrels per day, pushing Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in 2026.
World Bank economist Indermit Gill warned that fertilizer costs could rise 31% in 2026, inflation may reach 5.1%, growth could slow to 3.6%, and 45 million people face acute food insecurity.

Summary

World Bank Predicts

The World Bank forecasts the Middle-East conflict will end by May 2026, setting its 2026 price outlook baseline.
Under that baseline, Hormuz shipments should recover to near-pre-conflict levels by October 2026.
The report says attacks on energy infrastructure caused the most severe oil supply shock, that key metals will reach record prices in 2026, and that geopolitical instability is the main risk to global energy markets and inflation.

Summary

World Bank Warns

The World Bank report warns a commodity shock could ripple through inflation, fiscal stability and job creation.
It finds that more than 70 percent of commodity-importing economies and over 60 percent of commodity-exporting nations face weaker and reduced growth.
The report urges governments to target assistance toward vulnerable households to mitigate rising price pressures.
It warns that energy and fertilizer costs may strain public finances in developing countries already burdened by debt.

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World Bank Forecasts

World Bank forecasts energy prices will rise 24% in 2026, the biggest jump since the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war.
Hormuz Strait disruptions cut oil supply by 10 million barrels per day, pushing Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in 2026.
World Bank economist Indermit Gill warned that fertilizer costs could rise 31% in 2026, inflation may reach 5.1%, growth could slow to 3.6%, and 45 million people face acute food insecurity.

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