Full Breakdown
UAE Leaves OPEC and OPEC+: Implications for the Oil Cartel
4/29/2026, 8:13:36 PM
UAE Announces Exit from OPEC and OPEC+
On 28 April 2026 the United Arab Emirates announced it will leave OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May 2026, ending membership that began in 1967.
Background & Context
OPEC, founded in 1960, sets production quotas to influence prices. Its share of world supply fell from over 50 % in the 1970s to about 44 % in March 2026. UAE-Saudi tensions over quotas and the February 2026 Iran-U.S./Israel war have intensified. War choked the Strait of Hormuz, an export route for Emirates, motivating the shift.
Key Figures & Groups
Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, policy analyst Dr Ebtesam Al-Ketbi, OPEC analyst Jorge Leon (Rystad) and economist David Oxley (Capital) have commented. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman leads OPEC.
Data & Statistics
Before the Iran war the UAE produced 3.4–3.6 mbd under OPEC caps of 3.2–3.5 mbd. Investments of US$150 billion have raised spare capacity to 4.8–5 mbd, targeted for 2027. OPEC+ together accounts for roughly 42 % of global crude production.
Why It Matters / Impact
The UAE’s exit cuts OPEC’s capacity by roughly 15 % and removes a key swing producer, limiting Saudi Arabia’s ability to stabilise prices. Once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the Emirates could add 0.5–1 mbd, easing benchmarks.
Official Statements & Responses
WAM stated the decision “reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision… and accelerated investment in domestic energy production.” Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei said the world “needs more energy” and the UAE wants to be “unconstrained by any groups.” The ministry also pledged to increase output “in a gradual and measured manner, aligned with demand and market conditions.”
Criticism & Opposition
Jorge Leon called the exit a blow to OPEC’s cohesion; David Oxley described it as “the thin end of the wedge.” Some view it as a win for Donald Trump. Analysts warn a rapid output surge could spark a price war that smaller OPEC members cannot absorb.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources list UAE pre-war output as 3.2, 3.4 or 3.6 mbd, and OPEC’s global share as 44 % or “less than a third.” Pipeline timelines to bypass Hormuz are unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The world needs more energy. The world needs more resources, and [the] UAE wanted to be unconstrained by any groups.” — Suhail Al Mazrouei, UAE Energy Minister.
- “The decision reflects the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile, including accelerated investment in domestic energy production.” — WAM, UAE state news agency.
- “Losing a member with 4.8 million barrels per day of capacity, and the ambition to produce more, takes a real tool out of the group's [OPEC] hands,” — Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy.
- “the thin end of the wedge,” — David Oxley, Capital Economics.
What's Next
The UAE aims to lift output to 5 mbd by 2027 and will sell oil outside OPEC quotas. Analysts watch Saudi adjustments and potential further OPEC exits. The Emirates will also rely on the Fujairah-to-Oman pipeline to bypass Hormuz while the strait remains closed.
