Denver Leads U.S. Housing Market Decline as Home Values Slip 2.2% YoY

In February, Denver’s median home value fell 2.2 % compared with February 2023, the largest year-over-year drop among the 100 metros tracked by the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. Tampa posted the second-steepest decline at 2.1 %, followed by Seattle (-2.0 %), Phoenix (-1.8 %), Dallas (-1.7 %), Los Angeles (-0.8 %) and Washington, D.C. (-0.1 %). More than half of the major U.S. metros reported price declines, extending the weakness beyond the Sun Belt.

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During the pandemic, Denver, Austin, Tampa and similar “boomtowns” experienced rapid price appreciation as remote-work inflows surged. After the health emergency ended, employers recalled workers to offices, interstate migration slowed, mortgage rates rose, and a wave of newly built inventory entered the market. Denver’s for-sale inventory reached its highest level in over a decade, while higher building-insurance costs and stricter condo guidelines dampened demand.

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• Denver: -2.2 % YoY (Feb 2024)

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• Tampa: -2.1 % YoY (Feb 2024); median price rose 4.3 % YoY in March per Redfin

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• Seattle: -2.0 % YoY

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• Phoenix: -1.8 % YoY

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• Dallas: -1.7 % YoY

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• Los Angeles: -0.8 % YoY

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• Washington, D.C.: -0.1 % YoY

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Supply-rich metros posted the steepest declines, while supply-constrained markets in the Midwest and Northeast continued modest growth.

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• Nicholas Godec, Head of Fixed Income Tradables & Commodities, S&P Dow Jones Indices – oversees the Case-Shiller data.

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• Anthony Smith, Senior Economist, Realtor.com – monitors national price trends.

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• Lance Lambert, Real-Estate Analyst, ResiClub – tracks regional corrections, especially in Florida.

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The correction threatens affordability for prospective buyers and signals that price declines may persist in metros with abundant inventory. Fragmentation—simultaneous declines in supply-rich regions and stability in constrained markets—suggests a non-uniform national housing outlook. Continued inventory growth and elevated borrowing costs could deepen price pressure in Denver and similar cities.

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Godec noted a “meaningful shift” in the geographic mix of markets, placing Denver and Seattle alongside Sun-Belt decliners. Smith said markets that were positive last fall, such as Los Angeles and Washington, have turned negative, and that price growth is likely to hold in supply-constrained Midwest and Northeast metros while corrections may run longer in supply-rich areas. Lambert observed that Florida’s downturn has softened, yet softness remains in parts of the state.

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Some sellers, not facing financial distress, are choosing to wait out the weakness, reflecting concerns that further price drops could erode equity. Analysts caution that the broadening of declines signals “continued fragmentation rather than a national turning point.”

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While Denver’s decline is clear, the pace of inventory absorption and future buyer demand remain uncertain, leaving a gap in forecasting the depth of the correction.

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• “The geographic mix has shifted meaningfully,” — Nicholas Godec, S&P Dow Jones Indices

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• “Mountain West (Denver) and Pacific Northwest (Seattle) markets now sit alongside Sun Belt decliners Tampa, Phoenix, and Dallas,” — Nicholas Godec

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• “Markets that were holding positive territory as recently as last fall, including Los Angeles and Washington, have crossed into negative annual returns,” — Anthony Smith, Realtor.com

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• “In supply-constrained Midwest and Northeast markets, price growth is likely to hold,” — Anthony Smith

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• “But today's data suggest the correction in more supply-rich metros has more room to run, with the broadening of declines into new geographies pointing to continued fragmentation rather than a national turning point.” — Anthony Smith

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• “While softness—and even outright weakness—remains in parts of Florida's housing market, the intensity of the downturn in Florida has eased somewhat in recent months,” — Lance Lambert, ResiClub

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The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index will release monthly updates, allowing analysts to track whether Denver’s price slide accelerates or stabilizes. Monitoring inventory trends, mortgage-rate movements, and interstate migration patterns will be essential for forecasting the next phase of the correction.

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