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UAE Leaves OPEC, Oil Prices Surge Around 3%

4/29/2026

26 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

UAE Exits OPEC

The United Arab Emirates announced a shock exit from OPEC, adding uncertainty to peace talks.
Brent June futures rose 2.8% to $114.37 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3.3% to $103.18 per barrel.
Since the war began on Feb. 28, the WTI contract has gained over 49%.
ING said the UAE exit is a big blow to OPEC that helps importers, while Gulf events and Hormuz flow timing still drive prices.

Summary

Iran Demands Hormuz

Iran told the U.S. via Pakistan it is in “state of collapse” and wants Hormuz reopened.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Iran’s offer fails U.S. nuclear-program demands.
UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani said the United States and Israel guarantee against attacks before Hormuz reopens.
Citi warns Brent could hit $150 if the blockade lasts through June, leading the Bank of Japan to raise inflation forecasts and cut growth outlook.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran, cut output by 5 million barrels per day, driving crude from $3 to $12 a barrel and sparking the first oil shock. The 2024 UAE exit from OPEC and Iran’s Hormuz blockade echo that crisis, pushing Brent above $110 and WTI past $100 as governments again debate strategic reserves.

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UAE Exits OPEC

The United Arab Emirates announced a shock exit from OPEC, adding uncertainty to peace talks.
Brent June futures rose 2.8% to $114.37 per barrel.
West Texas Intermediate rose 3.3% to $103.18 per barrel.
Since the war began on Feb. 28, the WTI contract has gained over 49%.
ING said the UAE exit is a big blow to OPEC that helps importers, while Gulf events and Hormuz flow timing still drive prices.

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