Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

BoE Holds Rates Amid Dissent, Inflation Outlook, Oil Risk

4/30/2026

48 11 Full Breakdown

Summary

BOE Holds

Bank of England will keep interest rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, though Chief Economist Huw Pill likely dissent and vote for a hike.
The Monetary Policy Report forecasts inflation peaking at 4.5% and not reaching 2% until 2028.
National Institute of Economic and Social Research cut UK growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2024 and 1.0% for 2027.
Warn the Strait of Hormuz closure raises risk as Brent trades near $112.

Summary

Powell Delays Cuts

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is expanding despite the Iran war shock, lowering the case for immediate rate cuts.
Polymarket puts odds of no rate change after the July 2026 meeting at 85.5% and a 3.6% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in June.
Traders have wagered $506,803 on these contracts, while watchers note escalation in Iran conflict or a dip in spending could shift the odds.

History

Historical Context

By September 2008, after six rate cuts that began with a 0.75-point cut in January, the Federal Reserve under Chairman Ben Bernanke lowered the federal-funds target to 2 percent and launched a $700 billion emergency liquidity program that shored up firms such as Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers. The move echoed simultaneous cuts by the Bank of England and set a precedent for later policy debates.

1 of 3

BOE Holds

Bank of England will keep interest rate at 3.75% in an 8-1 vote, though Chief Economist Huw Pill likely dissent and vote for a hike.
The Monetary Policy Report forecasts inflation peaking at 4.5% and not reaching 2% until 2028.
National Institute of Economic and Social Research cut UK growth forecasts to 0.9% for 2024 and 1.0% for 2027.
Warn the Strait of Hormuz closure raises risk as Brent trades near $112.

1 / 3