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World Bank: Energy Prices to Jump 24% in 2026

4/30/2026

27 2 Full Breakdown

Summary

World Bank Warns

World Bank Group report projects energy prices to rise 24% in 2026, the highest increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It forecasts Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in 2026, with a possible $115 peak if damage persists.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut supply by 10 million barrels per day.
The shock could lift commodity prices 16% and expose 45 million people to acute food insecurity.

Summary

Central banks steady

A Reuters poll raised 2026 inflation forecasts for 44 of the top 50 economies after the Strait of Hormuz shutdown.
The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate unchanged.
The Federal Reserve is projected to cut rates only once in Q4 2026.
The Bank of England, Bank of Canada and European Central Bank are expected to keep policy steady or raise rates once.

History

Historical Context

During the October 1973 OPEC oil embargo, Saudi Arabia and other Arab producers cut output by about 5 million barrels per day, driving West Texas Intermediate from $3 to $12 per barrel—a four-fold jump. The shock forced the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to tighten policy, illustrating how geopolitical supply cuts can reignite global inflation.

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World Bank Warns

World Bank Group report projects energy prices to rise 24% in 2026, the highest increase since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
It forecasts Brent crude to average $86 per barrel in 2026, with a possible $115 peak if damage persists.
Attacks on energy infrastructure and Strait of Hormuz disruptions cut supply by 10 million barrels per day.
The shock could lift commodity prices 16% and expose 45 million people to acute food insecurity.

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