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ECB Holds Rates as Inflation Stays 3%, Growth 0.1%

5/1/2026

Summary

ECB Holds Rates

The European Central Bank left its rates unchanged on April 30, 2026, with deposit at 2%, main refinancing at 2.15% and marginal lending at 2.40%.
April inflation at 3% coincided with first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1%.
The council warned that the Middle East war raises energy prices and inflation risk.
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.17 while the German 10-yr bund slipped to 3.0580%.
The ECB pledged a data-dependent stance.

Summary

Oxfam Predicts

Oxfam projects the biggest oil firms will earn $94 billion profit in 2026.
TotalEnergies profit rose 29 % to $5.4 billion (€5.0 billion) amid Iran war price surge.
Repsol earnings jumped 57 % and margins more than doubled, lifting profit to $2 billion.
Trevor Grant warned borrowers to fix mortgages after 2022’s steep rate hikes.
Economists Thomas Pugh and Jack Wellard forecast 2026 inflation at 3.4 %, a 12.4 % savings ratio and 2.5 % growth.

Summary

Trump Extends Ceasefire

President Donald Trump extended cease-fire, leaving traffic through Strait of Hormuz sparse.
German consumer sentiment fell to a three-year low, per Thursday data.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects eurozone growth of 1.1 % in 2026 if the war ends quickly.
UniCredit sees no urgency for European Central Bank (ECB) to act, noting inflation was near target pre-conflict.
Analysts warn that despite the cease-fire, the Strait closure keeps Brent above $100.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 OPEC oil embargo forced Western oil prices to quadruple, sparking stagflation and prompting central banks like Germany’s Bundesbank (5.5% in 1974) and the U.S. Fed to raise rates. Shock created a pattern where energy spikes force monetary tightening—a pattern echoed today as ECB holds its rate at 2.15% while IMF warns the 2026 Middle-East conflict could lift euro-zone inflation to 3%.

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ECB Holds Rates

The European Central Bank left its rates unchanged on April 30, 2026, with deposit at 2%, main refinancing at 2.15% and marginal lending at 2.40%.
April inflation at 3% coincided with first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1%.
The council warned that the Middle East war raises energy prices and inflation risk.
The euro rose 0.2% to $1.17 while the German 10-yr bund slipped to 3.0580%.
The ECB pledged a data-dependent stance.

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