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Energy prices surge, PCE inflation 3.5% as Fed holds.

5/1/2026

49 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Fed Holds Rates

Personal consumption expenditures inflation rose to 3.5% in March, the highest annual rate since May 2023.
Energy prices jumped 11% in March, pushing gasoline to $4.30 a gallon and Brent crude to $120 a barrel.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on April 30, citing uncertainty from the Iran conflict.

Summary

Trump Warns

President Donald Trump warned the blockade of Iran’s ports will stay until Tehran ends its nuclear program.
U.S. Central Command drafted a plan for short strikes on Iran targeting infrastructure.
Brent topped $126 a barrel while diesel rose to $5.46 per gallon, a 46% increase since the war began.
Market indices moved, with the Dow up 0.8% and the Nasdaq down 0.3% as the S&P 500 neared record highs on earnings.

History

Historical Context

After U.S. production peaked in 1970 and imports surged, OAPEC’s October 1973 oil embargo—prompted by American arms shipments to Israel—cut Middle-East supplies and drove world crude from $3 to $12 per barrel, a 300 % jump. The shock sparked U.S. gasoline lines, stagflation throughout the 1970s and lasting policy caution about geopolitical energy risks.

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Fed Holds Rates

Personal consumption expenditures inflation rose to 3.5% in March, the highest annual rate since May 2023.
Energy prices jumped 11% in March, pushing gasoline to $4.30 a gallon and Brent crude to $120 a barrel.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50%-3.75% on April 30, citing uncertainty from the Iran conflict.

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