Texas Senate Runoff: Cornyn vs. Paxton Amid Trump’s Uncertain Endorsement

Incumbent U.S. Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton will face each other in a Republican primary runoff on May 26, 2026. Both advanced from the March 3 primary, where Cornyn led Paxton by one point. The winner will meet Democrat Rep. James Talarico, who leads each Republican by single digits in a University of Texas poll, in the November general election.

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Trump promised a “soon” endorsement after the primary, apparently for Cornyn, but leaked plans and calls from supporters urging him not to back Cornyn stalled the decision. He met Paxton at Mar-a-Lago and later posted that “any human being running against” Talarico could win. Paxton offered to withdraw if Senate Republicans eliminated the filibuster to pass the Trump-backed Save America Act. As of late April, Trump has not confirmed an endorsement.

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The contest pits Cornyn, Paxton and Trump against each other, with Democrat James Talarico as the general-election opponent; also involved are Sen. Steve Daines, Rep. Brandon Gill and Chris LaCivita.

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Primary ads hit $100 million; runoff spending $5.7 million, almost all by Cornyn allies. Talarico raised $27 million (cash $9.9 million); Cornyn $8.2 million; Paxton $2.6 million. The University of Texas poll puts Talarico ahead of each Republican by single digits, with about 20 % undecided.

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Without a Trump endorsement, the runoff remains costly and forces GOP donors to focus on a single Senate seat, potentially weakening support for vulnerable House races in November. Talarico raised $27 million, exceeding the $8.2 million raised by Cornyn and the $2.6 million raised by Paxton.

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Trump told Fox News he still wants to endorse but must first see who can secure the Save America Act. Cornyn said he will back any Senate-rule changes needed for the bill. Paxton reiterated that “runoffs tend to favor the most conservative person.”

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An unnamed national Republican strategist called the race “a mess,” blaming “failure by multiple entities to do their part.” Moran warned the costly Senate contest drains resources needed for competitive House seats.

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Independent polling is limited; most surveys come from partisan groups. The University of Texas poll shows a single-digit lead for Talarico, yet 20 % of voters remain undecided, and Trump’s endorsement timeline remains unclear.

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• “It’s a mess,” — Anonymous national Republican strategist

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• “would be surprised if the president will weigh in on that race.” — Sen. Steve Daines, former Senate GOP campaign chair

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• “I’m very optimistic. In Texas, runoffs tend to favor the most conservative person,” — Ken Paxton, Texas Attorney General

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• “Judgment Day is coming.” — John Cornyn, U.S. Senator

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The runoff takes place on May 26. The winner will face Talarico in November.

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