Iran Conflict Fuels Gasoline Surge, Threatening Rural Trump Support

U.S. strikes against Iran, including a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, lifted the average gasoline price to $4.23 per gallon on April 29—a 40 percent jump from pre-war levels, per the AAA motor club. The surge hits farmers, a core Trump constituency that helped secure his narrow 2024 victory.

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Economists say the shock hits lower-income households and residents of the South and Midwest hardest, where mileage is high and diesel—essential for tractors—has risen alongside gasoline. Higher diesel costs raise farm operating expenses, prompting a gradual increase in food prices.

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Bernard Yaros, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, told i Paper that gasoline prices should stabilize soon, yet spillover into non-energy commodities will linger, pushing food prices higher as diesel costs remain elevated.

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Analysts warn that the energy concerns that aided Trump in 2024 could become a liability in the 2026 midterms, as rising costs may erode support among farmers and other rural voters who traditionally bolster Republican performance in the South and Midwest.

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i Paper reporter Kieron Monks warned that the war’s economic fallout is already generating frustration among agricultural workers in traditionally Republican strongholds, and that the gasoline price increases in red states could sway voter sentiment before the next electoral cycle.

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• “Few professions have been as reliably supportive of Donald Trump as farmers, and few U.S. states voted for him by a greater margin than Mississippi,” — Kieron Monks, i Paper

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• “The national average of gasoline prices hit a four-year high of $4.23 (£3.14) on Wednesday, (April 29), a 40 per cent surge on pre-war prices, according to the AAA motor club,” — Kieron Monks, i Paper

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• “Typically, this is going to affect lower-income households much more because they spend a greater share of their budgets on gasoline, on energy, goods and services. Negative energy price shocks are regressive in that they hit those lower on income distribution…. In terms of geography, this is going to affect folks in the South and Midwest much more than the West and Northeast. These are more rural areas where people drive a lot more.” — Bernard Yaros, Oxford Economics economist

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• “We're expecting that gasoline prices in the U.S. are going to stabilize, but some of the spillover effects into non-energy commodities will take time to play out. We're going to see food prices gradually grind higher as a result of the higher cost of diesel, the workhorse fuel for the agriculture industry, which powers the tractors that work the fields.” — Bernard Yaros, Oxford Economics economist

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Analysts expect gasoline prices to level off, but the lagging impact on diesel and food commodities may persist through 2026, making rural voter sentiment a key factor as the midterm elections approach.

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