Iran Conflict Fuels Oil Price Volatility and Drives U.S. Market Rally

Hostilities between the United States and Iran intensified in late February 2026, prompting a naval blockade of Iranian ports and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Brent for June rose to $123 a barrel and WTI briefly hit $126. By midday, WTI fell to $105 and Brent slipped to $114.50, a rapid retreat after the premium.

Associated Press

President Donald Trump said the blockade will stay until Tehran abandons its nuclear program, repeating remarks to Axios. The Strait of Hormuz, which carries about one-fifth of global oil, has been shut, cutting a major export route for Iranian oil.

New York Times

• Brent (June) : $123 / bbl; July : $113.17 / bbl.

Associated Press

• WTI : $126 / bbl peak, then $105 / bbl.

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• S&P 500 : +0.89 % on the day, on track for its largest monthly gain since 2020.

The Globe and Mail (Toronto)

The White House confirmed senior military leaders would brief President Trump on possible actions against Iran. The Federal Reserve left its policy rate unchanged, citing high energy prices in its inflation outlook. Iranian officials warned of retaliation if the United States abandons the ceasefire, highlighting a diplomatic impasse.

Reuters

Analysts warn that persistent high energy prices could embed inflationary pressures, limiting the Fed’s ability to ease rates. ING Bank strategists said the breakdown of U.S.–Iran talks erodes confidence in a swift oil-flow restoration, while economists caution that transitory inflation may become entrenched if the conflict continues.

Reuters

One source lists Brent at $123 / bbl, another cites $122.88 / bbl for the same contract. WTI’s peak is reported as $126 / bbl in some accounts and $105 / bbl after the retreat in others. No publicly disclosed cease-fire terms or settlement timeline are available.

Why US stock market surging big today on final day of April? Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in green as Dow jumps record 500 points — Nvidia, Intel and Meta Platforms stocks crash

• “Oil prices pushed higher on Thursday, hitting a new wartime high, as President Trump continued to assert that the naval blockade of Iran’s ports will persist until Tehran gives up its nuclear program.” — Donald Trump, President

New York Times

• “The breakdown of talks between the U.S. and Iran, along with President Trump reportedly rejecting Iran’s proposal for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, has the market losing hope for any quick resumption in oil flows,” — Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey, ING Bank strategists

Associated Press

• “For now, we can label (inflation) as transitory,” — Peter Cardillo, chief market economist, Spartan Capital Securities

Reuters

• “West Texas Intermediate crude briefly topped $126 per barrel early Thursday after Axios reported that President Trump would be briefed on new military options against Iran.” — Reuters

Why US stock market surging big today on final day of April? Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in green as Dow jumps record 500 points — Nvidia, Intel and Meta Platforms stocks crash

The oil price retreat eased input-cost pressures for airlines, retailers and manufacturers, supporting equity valuations despite lingering inflation concerns. Strong earnings, especially from industrials like Caterpillar, offset the energy shock, allowing U.S. indices to post record-level monthly gains.

The Globe and Mail (Toronto)

Investors will watch briefing outcomes that could signal further U.S. military options and Federal Reserve meetings that may reassess policy amid evolving energy prices. Diplomatic overtures between Washington and Tehran remain uncertain, leaving oil markets vulnerable to renewed spikes.

The Globe and Mail (Toronto)