Story perspectives

Iran-Hormuz Conflict Sparks UAE OPEC Exit, Saudi Reroute, China Buys

5/1/2026

Summary

UAE Exits OPEC

Iran's conflict over the Strait of Hormuz has raised oil-supply security concerns.
Oil-importing nations are de-risking by buying oil outside the Middle East, keeping prices high.
OPEC keeps pricing power as Saudi Arabia routes exports through a Red Sea pipeline and may cut prices.
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC.
China is expected to become a more risk-tolerant buyer of cheaper Middle East oil.

Summary

Eni Raises Forecast

Eni raised its Brent forecast to $83 barrel and gas price to €50 per megawatt-hour.
Goldman Sachs said 14.5 million barrels per day—57 % of Gulf output—stopped in April, halving empty-tanker capacity.
Bloomberg predicts the largest oil-demand decline, starting with Asian petrochemicals and to gasoline, diesel and aviation fuel.
A University of Michigan poll found U.S. consumer confidence at a low and inflation expectations at 4.7 % for the year ahead.

Summary

UAE Boosts Pipeline

The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline carries about 1.5 million barrels per day, far below the UAE’s 3.4 million-bpd output.
Energy Minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the UAE will raise output gradually and therefore needs higher pipeline throughput or new export routes.
The overland line bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, giving the UAE a unique export advantage as its OPEC and OPEC+ exit on May 1 2026 heightens the pipeline’s strategic role.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, led by Saudi Arabia and Iran, cut output and imposed an oil embargo on the United States and allies after the Yom Kippur War, sending world crude prices up nearly 300% by March 1974. The shock spurred Gulf states to diversify export routes, a strategy echoed as tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline raise fears of renewed supply disruptions.

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UAE Exits OPEC

Iran's conflict over the Strait of Hormuz has raised oil-supply security concerns.
Oil-importing nations are de-risking by buying oil outside the Middle East, keeping prices high.
OPEC keeps pricing power as Saudi Arabia routes exports through a Red Sea pipeline and may cut prices.
The United Arab Emirates announced its exit from OPEC.
China is expected to become a more risk-tolerant buyer of cheaper Middle East oil.

1 / 4