Story perspectives

China’s Manufacturing PMI Rises to 50.3, Q1 Grows 5%

5/1/2026

Summary

China PMI Surge

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in April, while exporters’ fear of Iran-war cost spikes lifted the export-orders sub-index to a high of 50.3.
The economy grew 5% YoY in the Jan-Mar quarter, with orders at 50.6 and raw-material and output price indexes at 63.7 and 55.1.
Dongguan manager Han Bing said business boomed and factories stockpiled despite a chemical shortage, warning that the Middle-East conflict could curb external demand.

Summary

Beijing Offsets Shock

Beijing taps oil reserves and boosts renewable investment to soften the Iran-war shock.
Container volumes through Chinese ports topped last year’s record despite a late-April slowdown.
Barclays’ Yingke Zhou warns of a two-speed economy with green-tech exports surging while services contract.
Guangdong’s electricity prices have nearly doubled as Middle-East gas constraints raise manufacturing costs.
ING’s Lynn Song says rising input costs haven’t been passed to consumers, keeping services under pressure.

Summary

Trump Imposes Tariffs

U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a 10% duty on global imports.
The Busan truce lowered tariffs on Chinese goods to about 47%.
Beijing ended its export controls on rare earth minerals.
A May summit between President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump will address the Section 301 dispute.
In Guangzhou, workers at a Shein-supplied textile factory were observed while the non-manufacturing PMI fell to 49.4 from 50.1.

History

Historical Context

In March 2018 the United States, under President Trump, issued a Section 301 memo directing the USTR to levy $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods while imposing 25% steel and 10% aluminum duties; China retaliated with 15% tariffs on 120 U.S. products, including soybeans. The April 2024 Chinese manufacturing PMI of 50.3 shows the sector’s rebound after that trade-war shock.

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China PMI Surge

China’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in April, while exporters’ fear of Iran-war cost spikes lifted the export-orders sub-index to a high of 50.3.
The economy grew 5% YoY in the Jan-Mar quarter, with orders at 50.6 and raw-material and output price indexes at 63.7 and 55.1.
Dongguan manager Han Bing said business boomed and factories stockpiled despite a chemical shortage, warning that the Middle-East conflict could curb external demand.

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