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NBA Proposes Anti-Tanking Lottery Reform, Vote May 28

5/1/2026

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Summary

NBA Overhauls Lottery

NBA will submit anti-tanking lottery reform for a vote on May 28, to start with the 2027 draft.
The 16-team lottery assigns 1-3 balls, gives the three worst two balls and a floor of the 12th pick, and bars teams from winning No. 1 in consecutive years or three straight top-five picks.
The Kings and Jazz have a 45.2% chance at a top-four pick, and the lottery runs final time on May 10.

Summary

Hornets Avoid Bottom

The Hornets are expected to avoid the bottom three for three seasons because a rising young core and ample assets strengthen team.
Charlotte holds 2027 picks from Dallas and Miami that could land in the lottery’s middle range.
Pat Riley’s reluctance may shift to a rebuild that may involve a Tyler Herro for Cade Cunningham trade as the 2026 draft class—AJ Dybants, Darryn Peterson, Cam Boozer and Caleb Wilson—drives tanking.

Summary

Arenas Faces Prison

NBA officials briefed 30 general managers on the “3-2-1 lottery” before the May 28 owners’ vote.
League tightened controls and updated Code of Conduct to protect players and staff.
The proposal lets the NBA change lottery odds for rule-breakers and adds a sunset clause ending it after the 2029 draft.
Former NBA star Gilbert Arenas faces up to five years in prison if convicted of an illegal poker scheme in California.

Summary

Kings Lose Pick

The proposal would cut bottom-three teams’ No. 1 pick chance from 14.0% to 5.4%, a change Logan Struck says threatens small-market teams such as the Sacramento Kings.
The Sacramento Kings could drop to 16th pick after a 60-game loss season.
A SportsCLT simulation by Dylan Jackson puts Kings at an 8.5 slot.
Lev Akabas warns that 2019 odds flattening, which gave an 11-seed an 8.1% chance at No. 1, could repeat tanking.

History

Historical Context

In 2005 the NBA cut the worst-team’s top-pick odds from about 14 % to roughly 6 % and gave the three lowest-record clubs similar chances, as seen with the Milwaukee Bucks’ 6.30 % chance. The 2019 reform equalized the bottom three at 14 % each, shaping today’s 3-2-1 lottery that caps the Sacramento Kings and leaves the Charlotte Hornets in mid-range picks.

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NBA Overhauls Lottery

NBA will submit anti-tanking lottery reform for a vote on May 28, to start with the 2027 draft.
The 16-team lottery assigns 1-3 balls, gives the three worst two balls and a floor of the 12th pick, and bars teams from winning No. 1 in consecutive years or three straight top-five picks.
The Kings and Jazz have a 45.2% chance at a top-four pick, and the lottery runs final time on May 10.

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