Tony Blair Institute Proposes Scrapping Triple Lock and Introducing a Lifespan Fund

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) has issued a report calling for the abolition of the state pension and its “triple lock” guarantee, proposing a “Lifespan Fund” that can be accessed early for ill health, unemployment, retraining or caring duties.

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The current state pension costs about £146 billion annually (?5 % of GDP). Demographic forecasts project a rise to 7.8 % of GDP, an extra £85 billion a year, as pensioners increase from 12.6 million to nearly 19 million. TBI argues a Lifespan Fund could hold spending near 5.5 % of GDP and avoid £66 billion in extra costs by 2070.

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Contributions to the Lifespan Fund would accrue from work, study, caring or recognised activity. Each contribution year would entitle the holder to up to 20 years of support at today’s pension level. Early draws would trigger National Insurance contributions on return to work, and payouts would be adjusted for age, health status, medical records, BMI and lifestyle factors such as smoking.

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A Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) spokesperson reaffirmed that the triple lock remains guaranteed for the rest of Parliament, ensuring “millions of pensioners will see their yearly state pension rise by up to £2,100.” The spokesperson noted that the Pensions Commission is reviewing secure-retirement options.

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Pensions expert Steve Webb warned the Lifespan Fund would be a “huge backward step”, describing it as “fiendishly complex and highly intrusive” and calling health-record-based adjustments “deeply troubling”. Jonathan Cribb cautioned that flexibility could increase system complexity, while Tom Smith argued the current pension scheme is “outdated” and unaffordable.

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The TBI report is independent and not endorsed by the DWP, which maintains the triple lock. All major parties except the Greens have pledged to retain it, while health-based adjustments raise data-privacy and fairness questions.

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• “We can’t keep pouring money into a system that is increasingly unaffordable.” — Tom Smith, director of economic policy, TBI

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• “ Webb, a former pensions minister and partner at pension consultants LCP, said: “The idea of linking state pension payments to individual health records and individual life expectancy is deeply troubling.” — Steve Webb, former pensions minister

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• “ A DWP spokesperson said: “Supporting pensioners is a priority and our commitment to the triple lock for the rest of this Parliament means millions of pensioners will see their yearly state pension rise by up to £2,100.” — DWP spokesperson

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TBI advises scrapping the triple lock in 2030 and tying future increases to earnings growth. The DWP’s policy keeps the lock in place, while the Pensions Commission’s review may shape alternative reforms, keeping the Lifespan Fund debate.

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