Full Breakdown
Reform UK Candidate Controversy and Election Surge Ahead of May 7 Local Polls
5/2/2026, 2:35:01 AM
Candidate Controversy in Hastings
Reform UK’s candidate for the Tressell ward of Hastings Borough Council, Ricky Hodges – a former Coldstream Guard who ran Sentry Scaffolding – has drawn scrutiny for a series of Facebook posts spanning several years. The posts allege that Muslims “milk our benefits system” to fund mosques, call for the Mayor of London to be “put into a coma,” and threaten to “punch a ‘squirming little leftie’ in the throat.” In a 2022 anniversary post about the London 7/7 bombings, Hodges paired images of the destroyed bus with a photo of Southport killer Axel Rudakubana and wrote, “We have an open border with 1000s of Islamic extremists coming in unchallenged!” The party’s internal investigation, first reported on 16 April, remained incomplete a week before the 7 May local elections.
Party Response
Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said the matter would be addressed, stating he did not yet know the outcome but that it “will be dealt with.” He added that if the statements were genuinely Hodges’s, they were “not acceptable at any level.” Farage later apologized for any delay, promising a swift resolution and noting that no suspension had been enacted at the time. He framed the incident as an isolated slip in a vetting process that involves “5,000 people.”
Calls for Action
Hastings Labour MP Helen Dollimore publicly urged Reform UK to drop Hodges as a candidate and remove him from the party. Katie Amess, daughter of the murdered MP Sir David Amess, echoed the demand, asserting there is “no place in our society for our elected officials to have previously called for violence.” The ballot for the Tressell ward, already printed, lists Hodges alongside Labour’s Ingrid Kristina Kathleen Allan, Green candidate Glenn Haffenden, and Conservative Shelley Lee.
Election Projections for Reform UK
Polls released in late April project a dramatic surge for Reform UK in the 2026 local elections. YouGov’s multilevel regression-plus-poststratification (MRP) model predicts the party will secure the highest vote share in 11 of the 13 West Midlands councils, with double-digit leads in Cannock Chase, Dudley, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Nuneaton, Redditch, Tamworth and Walsall, and a six-point advantage in Rugby. Tighter contests are forecast in Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Solihull, Birmingham and Coventry. Nationally, the Independent’s analysis anticipates Reform UK gaining over 1,300 council seats, expanding its councillors from three to roughly 2,342, while the Conservatives could lose about 907 seats. The Greens and Liberal Democrats are also projected to make modest gains.
Data & Statistics
- West Midlands: Reform UK leads by 10-plus points in seven councils; projected highest vote share in 11 of 13 councils.
- National: Reform UK expected to more than double its councillor count to 2,342; Conservatives projected to fall from 1,362 to 455 councillors.
- Specific seat forecasts: YouGov predicts Reform UK and Labour each winning 21 seats in Birmingham; Reform UK poised to take control of Sandwell and Coventry under the Bombe model.
Why It Matters
The controversy tests Reform UK’s capacity to manage candidate conduct while capitalising on a wave of voter dissatisfaction with Labour and the Conservatives. A failure to act decisively could undermine the party’s credibility in wards where it seeks breakthrough victories, particularly in the West Midlands where margins are narrow. Conversely, a swift resolution may mitigate reputational damage and preserve momentum ahead of the 7 May polls.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the investigation’s status: Farage acknowledges no suspension “as yet,” while Labour officials demand immediate removal. No definitive outcome is confirmed before polling day, and the ballot cannot be altered.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I don't know the answer to that, but it will be dealt with.” — Nigel Farage, Reform UK leader
- “If these statements are genuinely him, then it's not acceptable at any level, and it will be dealt with.” — Nigel Farage
- “ This month, Hastings Labour MP Helen Dollimore called on Reform UK to drop Hodges as a candidate and remove him from the party.” — Helen Dollimore, Labour MP for Hastings
- “there is no place in our society for our elected officials to have previously called for violence” — Katie Amess, daughter of Sir David Amess
- “We have an open border with 1000s of Islamic extremists coming in unchallenged!” — Ricky Hodges, Facebook post
What’s Next
The investigation’s conclusion is expected before the 7 May local elections, though ballot changes are no longer possible. Voters in Hastings and the broader West Midlands will decide whether Reform UK’s rising vote share can withstand the fallout from the candidate controversy.
