Story perspectives

UAE Exits OPEC+, Raises Output to 5 mbpd, Prices Fall

5/2/2026

Summary

UAE Boosts Output

The United Arab Emirates left OPEC and OPEC+ May 1 2026 and will raise output from 3.4 million to 5 million barrels per day.
Analysts say the supply could add 2 million barrels per day once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, pushing crude toward $90 per barrel June's end.
Brent futures rose to $126.41 a barrel before falling $4.02, leading experts to expect UAE output to pressure prices down after strait reopens.

Summary

Zayed Skips Summit

President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan skipped the Jeddah summit, sending Minister Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent approved a swap line for Abu Dhabi.
President Donald Trump gave diplomatic cover for the UAE’s OPEC exit.
Crown Prince Khaled bin Mohamed Al Nahyan’s Beijing trip secured deals and floated pricing in yuan.
The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline lets UAE crude export via the Gulf of Oman, bypassing Hormuz.

Summary

Exxon Ramps Output

Exxon Mobil’s 12% Permian output increase and Diamondback Energy’s ramp-up together push crude production to 13.6 million barrels per day.
Kevin Crowley says U.S. drillers are now way more disciplined, avoiding the over-drilling that caused massive losses in past OPEC price wars.
Aluminum prices rose to four-year highs after Iran-related disruptions cut Middle-East shipments, prompting Gresham House to launch a €1 billion battery-storage fund.

Summary

UAE Diversifies Pricing

UAE's OPEC exit dismantles petrodollar anchor, letting Gulf oil be priced in any currency.
ADNOC listed Murban futures on ICE Abu Dhabi in 2020, creating a standard from Brent and WTI.
The UAE joined BRICS in January 2024 and co-founded the mBridge platform linking banks of China, Hong Kong, Thailand and Saudi Arabia.
Importers—including Chinese refiners and Indonesia’s Pertamina—can now negotiate Murban contracts in yuan, rupee, yen or rupiah, reducing dollar reliance.

History

Historical Context

The 1973 Arab oil embargo, launched by OAPEC after the Yom Kippur War, cut Middle-East exports by 60-70% and pushed world crude to almost $12 a barrel by 1974, reshaping global finance under King Faisal’s Saudi leadership. The United Arab Emirates’ 2026 decision to leave OPEC and route oil through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, pricing in yuan, echoes that shift by bypassing Hormuz and diversifying pricing.

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UAE Boosts Output

The United Arab Emirates left OPEC and OPEC+ May 1 2026 and will raise output from 3.4 million to 5 million barrels per day.
Analysts say the supply could add 2 million barrels per day once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, pushing crude toward $90 per barrel June's end.
Brent futures rose to $126.41 a barrel before falling $4.02, leading experts to expect UAE output to pressure prices down after strait reopens.

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