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Full Breakdown

Mexico City’s Accelerating Sinking Captured by NASA-ISRO NISAR Satellite

5/2/2026, 10:05:41 AM

Subsidence Snapshot

NISAR data shows parts of Mexico City sinking up to a few centimeters per month (?0.78 in) between Oct 25 2025 and Jan 17 2026, about 9.5 in (24 cm) per year overall.

Background

Built on an ancient lakebed, groundwater pumping and urban weight compact the aquifer. Engineer Roberto Gayol first reported the issue in 1925; 1990s-2000s rates reached ~14 in (35 cm) per year, losing 30-39 ft (9-12 m) over a century.

Key Players

NASA and ISRO launched NISAR in 2025 from Satish Dhawan Space Centre. Scientists: Enrique Cabral (UNAM), Paul Rosen (NISAR), Craig Ferguson (NASA HQ), David Bekaert (Flemish Institute) and Dora Carreón-Freyre.

Data

Hotspots include Benito Juarez Airport and the Angel of Independence. Rates exceed 2 cm/month in some zones; city-wide average ?0.78 in/month. Damage includes a tilted Metropolitan Cathedral, fractured roads, broken water lines and Metro disruptions.

Implications

Threatens subway, drainage, potable water and housing. Worsens the chronic water crisis and raises flood risk. Demonstrates a model for monitoring other sinking coastal cities.

Official Response

NASA says NISAR’s L-band SAR can detect land subsidence in dense, vegetated regions. Mexican authorities, responding to recent water-crisis flare-ups, have funded extra research and will use NISAR data for mitigation. Cabral notes “the first step is to just understand” the problem.

Criticism

The Mexican government has largely ignored the issue, focusing only on stabilizing monument foundations, indicating a weak policy response.

Local Observations

Carreón-Freyre reported cracked houses in Iztapalapa and a 2017 taxi that fell into a fracture. Residents note tilted historic buildings and uneven streets.

Data Gaps

Some sources cite 14 in/year in the 1990s-2000s, while NISAR shows a slower 9.5 in/year overall with local spikes. Early maps contain yellow/red “residual noise” expected to improve with more passes.

Quotes

“It damages part of the critical infrastructure of Mexico City, such as the subway, the drainage system, the water, the potable water system, housing and streets.” — Enrique Cabral, UNAM researcher

“It’s basically documentation of all of these changes within a city.” — Paul Rosen, NISAR scientist

“Images like this confirm that NISAR’s measurements align with expectations.” — Craig Ferguson, NASA deputy project manager

“Mexico City is a well-known hot spot when it comes to subsidence, and images like this are just the beginning for NISAR.” — David Bekaert, project manager, Flemish Institute

“The houses that are founded in [volcanic] rock are stable, but the houses in the middle between the rock and the lacustrine plain are already broken, most of them.” — Dora Carreón-Freyre, researcher

Future

NISAR will target building-level monitoring and expand to other vulnerable cities.