Full Breakdown
OPEC+ Raises June Production Quotas Amid UAE Exit and Hormuz Blockade
5/4/2026, 4:57:43 AM
June Quota Increase and Its Immediate Context
On 3 May 2026, the seven OPEC+ members that met online—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman—agreed to raise the collective production quota by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for June. The adjustment mirrors the 188,000 bpd increase approved for May after subtracting the share previously allocated to the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which formally withdrew from OPEC and OPEC+ on 1 May.
Background: UAE Withdrawal and Hormuz Blockade
The UAE’s departure follows a long-standing dispute over quota allocations and coincides with the Iran-U.S.–Israel war that has closed the Strait of Hormuz. The blockade restricts exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait and the UAE, limiting the ability of OPEC+ producers to deliver additional barrels even if quotas rise.
Participants and Allocation
The quota increase is divided as follows:
- Saudi Arabia + 62,000 bpd
- Russia + 62,000 bpd
- Iraq + 26,000 bpd
- Kuwait + 16,000 bpd
- Kazakhstan + 10,000 bpd
- Algeria + 6,000 bpd
- Oman + 5,000 bpd
Saudi Arabia’s official quota will rise to 10.291 million bpd, well above its reported actual output of 7.76 million bpd in March.
Data & Statistics
- Total OPEC+ output (March): 35.06 million bpd, down 7.70 million bpd from February.
- Quota-based target (March): 36.73 million bpd, creating a shortfall of roughly 9 million bpd, driven mainly by war-related export constraints.
- Brent crude price: above $125 per barrel, a four-year high; settled at $108.17 per barrel on 2 May.
- ADNOC investment: $55 billion in new projects; aims to raise output to 5 million bpd by 2027, far above its last OPEC+ quota of ~3.5 million bpd.
Official Statements & Responses
OPEC+ released a statement that the increase reflects “their collective commitment to support oil market stability.” Kuwait Oil Minister Tareq Al-Roumi reiterated Kuwait’s “commitment to work in harmony within OPEC and OPEC+ … to ensure market stability.” No public comment was issued by the UAE or by OPEC’s secretariat regarding the withdrawal.
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts stress that the quota hike is largely symbolic. Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon described the move as a “two-layer message” of continuity and control, noting that “the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints.” Kpler analyst Amena Bakr called the UAE’s exit “a big deal,” warning that other members such as Iraq or Kazakhstan could consider similar steps.
Verbatim Quotes
- “By sticking to the same production path – just minus the UAE – it's acting as if nothing has happened, deliberately downplaying internal fractures and projecting stability,” — Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy
- “While output is increasing on paper, the real impact on physical supply remains very limited given the Strait of Hormuz constraints.” — Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy
- “Total OPEC+ output with quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March, against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, a shortfall of approximately 9 million bpd driven almost entirely by war-related disruption rather than voluntary restraint,” — Priya Walia, Rystad Energy
- “In their collective commitment to support oil market stability, the seven participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 188 thousand barrels per day,” — OPEC+ statement
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the extent to which actual production matches announced quotas: Saudi Arabia’s quota of 10.291 million bpd exceeds its reported March output of 7.76 million bpd, while total OPEC+ output remains well below the aggregate quota. The UAE’s future production plans are outlined by ADNOC but have not been incorporated into OPEC+ calculations.
What’s Next
The next OPEC+ meeting is scheduled for 7 June 2026, where members will reassess the June adjustment and consider further actions contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and evolving geopolitical dynamics.
