Holyrood Election 2026: SNP Prospects, Polls, and Political Tension

The Scottish Parliament election is set for 7 May 2026, with a week remaining for campaigning. Voters will cast ballots across Scotland.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

The SNP has governed for 19 years, with John Swinney serving as first minister. Press commentary notes a lack of enthusiasm for Swinney and describes the party as the “least bad of a bad lot” after two decades in power.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• John Swinney – SNP leader and first minister.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• Russell Findlay – Scottish Conservative leader.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• Sir John Curtice – polling analyst.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• Emily Gray – Ipsos Scotland analyst.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• Parties: SNP, Labour, Conservatives, Greens, Liberal Democrats, Reform UK.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

Recent surveys give the SNP a roughly 17-point lead, with vote share “more or less the same from Wick to Stranraer.” Most projections estimate about 60 seats for the SNP, short of a majority and prompting Swinney to backtrack on his claim that a majority is required for a second independence referendum. Sir Curtice describes the SNP’s performance as “doing badly.” Pollsters note an unusually high share of voters may switch allegiance before the vote, and public disenchantment could depress turnout.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

Sir Curtice warned the SNP’s campaign momentum is weak. Russell Findlay urged pro-UK voters to back the Conservatives on the “peach ballot” and cautioned that a SNP majority could revive a “divisive referendum” scenario. Emily Gray highlighted the fluid voter landscape and warned that disengagement may lead to low turnout. Swinney has adjusted his messaging, acknowledging that a majority is not a prerequisite for a future referendum.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

Right-leaning commentary accuses the SNP of conflating party identity with national identity, displaying “breathtaking arrogance,” and exhausting its ideas after 19 years. Critics label the administration “knackered,” self-righteous, and unfit for another term, arguing that time in opposition would benefit both the party and Scotland.

The Times of London

Sir Curtice’s “doing badly” assessment contrasts with polls showing a 17-point advantage and a projected 60-seat outcome. The precise size of the lead and the effect of potential voter swings remain unclear, leaving the majority question unresolved.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• “all doing badly this election.” — Sir John Curtice, Polling Analyst

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• “all doing badly this election.” — Russell Findlay, Scottish Conservative Leader

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• “Ipsos Scotland’s Emily Gray said that the proportion of voters who could switch allegiances was "higher than we would typically see at this point in an election campaign".” — Emily Gray, Ipsos Scotland

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

• “In a visit to the 'blue wall' constituencies in the south of Scotland, he said "With polls showing Swinney on the brink of a majority, the threat of another divisive referendum is real.” — Russell Findlay, Scottish Conservative Leader

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'

Campaign activity intensifies as parties target swing voters, especially in “blue wall” constituencies. Debates, door-to-door canvassing, and peach-ballot messaging dominate the last days. Analysts warn that last-minute shifts could alter seat allocations, while low turnout remains a plausible outcome.

Reason Holyrood polls might be way out highlighted by Sir John Curtice as he says SNP is 'doing badly'