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Trump Delays Hormuz Blockade Lift; Iran Controls 21% Shipments

5/4/2026

37 3 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

U.S. President Donald Trump has not announced lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with odds of a lift by May 31 2026 falling to 27.5%.
Polymarket odds for an outcome fell from 52% a week earlier to 27.5%, with snapshots between 28.5% and 40.5%.
Iran’s supertanker “HUGE” slipped blockade to deliver two million barrels to Indonesia, leading a lawmaker to set rules that cement Iran’s control of 21% of shipments.

History

Historical Context

In October 1973 OAPEC, including Saudi Arabia and Iran, imposed an oil embargo to punish nations supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War, prompting the Nixon administration to report a four-fold price jump as world oil prices significantly rose nearly 300 percent—from about $3 to $12 per barrel—until OAPEC lifted it in March 1974.

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Story summary

U.S. President Donald Trump has not announced lifting the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, with odds of a lift by May 31 2026 falling to 27.5%.
Polymarket odds for an outcome fell from 52% a week earlier to 27.5%, with snapshots between 28.5% and 40.5%.
Iran’s supertanker “HUGE” slipped blockade to deliver two million barrels to Indonesia, leading a lawmaker to set rules that cement Iran’s control of 21% of shipments.

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