Full Breakdown
Chicago Blackhawks Eye Top Pick in 2026 NHL Draft Lottery
5/5/2026, 3:20:19 AM
Draft Lottery Odds and Stakes
The Blackhawks entered the May 5, 2026 lottery with a 13.5 % chance of the No. 1 overall pick, a 14.1 % chance of No. 2, a 30.7 % chance of No. 3 and a 41.7 % chance of falling to No. 4—the lowest slot they can receive. The Vancouver Canucks hold the highest odds (reported as 25.5 % by the *Chicago Tribune* and 18.5 % by *USA Today*), followed by the New York Rangers (11.5 %) and the Calgary Flames (9.5 %). The Blackhawks’ odds make them the second-most likely team to land the top selection, a position that could shape the franchise’s rebuild.
Background & Context
Chicago finished last in the league for the third straight season, guaranteeing a lottery spot each year. The club has previously turned lottery positions into franchise cornerstones: Patrick Kane (No. 1, 2007) and Connor Bedard (No. 1, 2023). General manager Kyle Davidson has emphasized that the upcoming lottery “offers a chance to add another elite piece beside Bedard.”
Prospects in Contention: Gavin McKenna and Ivar Stenberg
Gavin McKenna – An 18-year-old forward from Whitehorse, Yukon, who spent two WHL seasons with the Medicine Hat Tigers (226 points: 75 G, 151 A). At Penn State he posted 51 points (15 G, 36 A) in 34 games, including an eight-point night versus Ohio State. He is praised for vision, puck-handling and playmaking, but his defensive-zone play is viewed as a liability. In February 2026 he faced a felony aggravated-assault charge that was later dropped; he still faces misdemeanor simple-assault, harassment and disorderly-conduct counts.
Ivar Stenberg – An 18-year-old Swedish winger from Stenungsund, brother of St. Louis Blues forward Otto Stenberg. He recorded 33 points (11 G, 22 A) in 43 games for Frölunda HC in the 2025-26 SHL and added six points in 12 playoff games. Internationally, he tallied 10 points (4 G, 6 A) in seven games as Sweden won gold at the IIHF World Junior Championship. Scouts note his two-way game and hockey IQ, while flagging occasional inconsistency.
Data & Statistics
- Blackhawks shot total: 24.7 shots per game (last season, last in the NHL).
- McKenna: 226 WHL points; 51 NCAA points in 34 games.
- Stenberg: 33 SHL points in 43 games; 10 World-Junior points.
- Lottery odds (Blackhawks): 13.5 % (No. 1), 14.1 % (No. 2), 30.7 % (No. 3), 41.7 % (No. 4).
Official Statements & Responses
Kyle Davidson reiterated that the organization “will evaluate all options and select the player who best complements Bedard and accelerates our rebuild.” Coach Jeff Blashill has said the ideal first-round pick would “pair with Bedard on the top line and give us a reliable two-way presence.” Bedard himself noted the team “isn’t going to take any (expletive) this season,” underscoring a desire for a tougher identity. McKenna told reporters he “models his game after Kane” and described Bedard as “a guy I can lean on.”
Criticism & Opposition
Analysts caution that McKenna’s off-ice legal issues and limited defensive experience could hinder his transition to the NHL. Stenberg’s inconsistency—producing “most of the time on one side or the other”—raises questions about his readiness for a full NHL schedule.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Odds for Vancouver: The *Chicago Tribune* lists 25.5 % while *USA Today* reports 18.5 %. Both figures appear in reputable sources, creating a discrepancy.
- Legal status of McKenna: The felony charge was dropped, yet misdemeanor charges remain pending, leaving his final legal outcome unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Tank for McKenna” — Fans’ rallying chant (Chicago Tribune)
- “a guy I can lean on.” — Gavin McKenna, press conference
- “Bedard said the Hawks weren’t “going to take any (expletive)” this season, but they proceeded to receive their fair share of it.” — Connor Bedard, interview
- “Win the lottery, take Gavin McKenna, and let the rebuild start looking a lot more dangerous.” — Chicago Hockey Insider editorial
What’s Next
The lottery will be televised on ESPN at 7 p.m. ET on May 5, 2026. If the Blackhawks secure the top pick, the decision will be made ahead of the June 6 draft combine. Ivar Stenberg is slated to compete for Sweden at the IIHF World Championship in Switzerland later this month, while McKenna will attend the NCAA postseason. The Blackhawks also retain three 2027 first-round picks (their own, the Panthers’, and the Oilers’) that could be leveraged in future trades.