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Mexico City’s Accelerating Sinking Documented by NASA-ISRO NISAR Satellite

5/5/2026, 12:21:20 AM

Accelerating Descent: Core Findings

Nasa-ISRO’s NISAR satellite measured ground movement across Mexico City from 25 Oct 2025 to 17 Jan 2026. The city is subsiding at an average of 0.78 inches (?2 cm) per month, or about 9.5 inches (?24 cm) per year. Blue-coded zones on the NISAR map show rates above 2 cm per month around Benito Juárez Airport, the Angel of Independence, and Iztapalapa. Cumulative loss exceeds 39 ft (12 m) in <100 yr, with localized drops up to 127 ft (38 m).

Historical Context

Mexico City sits on the former Lake Texcoco, the site of the Aztec capital Tenochtitlán. Spanish drainage in the 16th century and later urban expansion left a thick, water-laden clay layer. Decades of groundwater pumping have compacted this layer, accelerating subsidence. Engineers first recorded the phenomenon in 1925; by the 1990s some districts sank at ?35 cm yr?¹.

Researchers and Institutions

The study was led by Enrique Cabral, geophysics researcher at UNAM. NISAR scientists Paul Rosen and David Bekaert (Flemish Institute for Technological Research) performed the satellite analysis. Dora Carreón-Freyre contributed field observations, and Craig Ferguson oversaw mission operations at NASA Headquarters.

Impacts on Infrastructure and Society

Subsidence has fractured roads, subway tunnels, water pipes, and tilted historic monuments such as the Metropolitan Cathedral. The shrinking aquifer worsens a chronic water shortage that affects more than 22 million residents.

Official Responses

NASA described NISAR’s dual-frequency radar as “capable of detecting and tracking land subsidence in densely vegetated, urban regions.” Craig Ferguson highlighted its global disaster-monitoring potential. Mexican officials, citing recent water-crisis flare-ups, have increased funding for subsidence research and plan to integrate NISAR data into urban-planning. The dataset is publicly available via the Alaska Satellite Facility.

Criticism and Local Observations

Government action has largely been limited to stabilizing foundations beneath monuments, leaving broader infrastructure vulnerable. Carreón-Freyre noted that houses on volcanic rock remain stable, while those on the lacustrine plain are “already broken, most of them.” A 2017 taxi accident in Iztapalapa illustrated the acute risk.

Conflicting Data and Gaps

Historical subsidence rates range from 2 in yr?¹ in the late 1800s to 18 in yr?¹ by 1950 and ?35 cm yr?¹ in the 1990s. NISAR imagery still contains residual noise (yellow/red patches) that researchers aim to filter. Building-by-building measurements are not yet available.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “It damages part of the critical infrastructure of Mexico City, such as the subway, the drainage system, the water, the potable water system, housing and streets.” — Enrique Cabral, UNAM
  • “We have one of the fastest velocities of land subsidence in the whole world,” — Enrique Cabral
  • “It's basically documentation of all of these changes within a city.” — Paul Rosen, NISAR scientist
  • “Mexico City is a well-known hot spot when it comes to subsidence, and images like this are just the beginning for NISAR,” — David Bekaert, project manager, Flemish Institute for Technological Research

What’s Next

The team will produce building-scale subsidence maps, extend NISAR monitoring to other sinking megacities, and feed the data into early-warning systems for floods, landslides, and volcanic eruptions.