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Knicks, Spurs Favored; Fox, Towns Expected Over Props

5/5/2026

26 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites against the 76ers on May 4 at 8 p.m. ET, with a model projecting an 11-point win in 60 % of simulations.
The Spurs are 9.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves, with the model showing a 15-point win and the -9.5 spread hitting in 62 % of simulations.
Prop picks list De’Aaron Fox over 17.5 points (model 21) and Karl-Anthony Towns over 3.5 assists, with Anthony Edwards listed as questionable.

History

Historical Context

The modern NBA spread market traces its roots to early gambling interference in basketball, exemplified by the 1951 college point-shaving scandal that led to the arrest of 32 players in the New York area. Decades later, the 1985 Tulane scandal exposed payments totaling about $18,000 to five players, reinforcing NCAA concerns over amateurism. These episodes paved the way for today’s data-driven spreads used by sportsbooks.

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Story summary

The Knicks are 7.5-point favorites against the 76ers on May 4 at 8 p.m. ET, with a model projecting an 11-point win in 60 % of simulations.
The Spurs are 9.5-point favorites over the Timberwolves, with the model showing a 15-point win and the -9.5 spread hitting in 62 % of simulations.
Prop picks list De’Aaron Fox over 17.5 points (model 21) and Karl-Anthony Towns over 3.5 assists, with Anthony Edwards listed as questionable.

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